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Posts tagged: Robert Troeger

Long Shot Trainers: You Create the Advantage!

by James Connelly

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For most people who know the Sport of Kings as Horse Racing, you know the fascination of the sport is being at the Race Track. The awesome surroundings that for some reason is hard to describe. Seeing the equine athletes perform to their utmost ability, training and running for your wagers as if their life depends on it. Then there’s the fascination that exists within oneself of cashing a ticket so you can say “I had it!” Putting effort in scanning Past Performances that concludes in a profit! You Won! Although sadly for most people the other side is losing. A sad story, but true. We’ve all been there. Walking out of the Race Track with less cash than when you went in. Or if you wagered online there’s less in your account than earlier.

I wrote an Article earlier last Year entitled ” The Art of Making a Betting Line”. A whole appetite for smartly deciding on  wagers based on a personal betting line by assigning your own odds to horses in a race.With all the credit going to Author and Horse Racing Handicapper Mark Cramer. This is just an extra to that.

Unfortunately everyone sees the same Racing Form as everyone else. From the ones who are lazily scanning running lines to those who dwell deep between the lines and see more. Some don’t use the Racing Form. There are times when after you’ve been involved in a current meet, you will begin to notice trainers winning at rather high odds. Some that you’ve heard of before, and one’s you haven’t. It doesn’t matter because either horse on the form didn’t look like it had a chance,  and yet there it was winning at  14-1. Why rely on a Racing Form when the Horse that won at 14-1  looked like it had no winning form? Or even worse its a first time starter and you really didn’t  have a clue other than what everyone else thought.

Whenever a Trainer enters a horse and wins at high odds, it intrigues me to no end. What was it about this horse that I missed? How come I didn’t see that? See what? That one fraction 4 races back that was faster than any other horse? But he ran 6th eight lengths back last race? There’s other events happening outside of bettors awareness to the point its useless to wonder so much.

I soon realized that instead of fretting why it happened, I just wrote down that it did. Simple! What was the Trainer’s name? What Race level was it? What was the distance? What was the time between races? What were his odds! etc.

Its basically recording the event every time a Trainer enters a horse and wins at odds of 6-1 or higher. Some will use 5. I use 6-1. It sets a standard. You’ll find at the end of a meet like Del Mar, you’ll have acquired a nice list of trainers who like to do things like win with long shots at 6-1 or more! Some will do it 2-3-4 times, depending on the length of a meet. But this is where the gold lies. The  idea that the event recorded might again occur in the future and it’ll instantly become a possible contender based on the Trainer’s tendencies of long shots in certain scenarios.

For example: At the recent Del Mar meet Near San Diego,Ca there’s a Trainer by the name of Robert Troeger. Not many know of him. I had recorded three of his long shots . His first was Aug.7 2010 the 7th race a Maiden Special Weight (MSW) going 5.5 furlongs. His entry McKenzie’s Way, ridden by Pat Valenzuela in which came home a winner at 6-1. Noted.  Then on Aug 13th, 3rd race, 1mile on turf,  for MSW again Troeger showed up  in the long shot list with his entry Donner Wasser. O for 6 at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park, now is here (Del Mar) and switches to to leading rider Rafael Bejarano, who he brings  home to win at 7-1! I recorded that even though I missed it. What was it?  “fool me once , shame on you, fool me twice ,shame on me.” What about a third time? It took 8 days but the amazing Robert Troeger entered a  First Time Starter by the name of Ronin Dax in the 3rd race 1 mile on turf for MSW. I couldn’t let this go. He’s done it twice , I’m willing to bet he’ll do it again. He did!

________I played him and here comes, Ronin Dax passing horses 4 wide on the turn and wins by a length and a qtr. at 13-1! It didn’t take looking and guessing in the Daily Racing Form, but  just a simple record of  events that was noted.

Another example of having records helped me was earlier at Del Mar as well. Well noted Trainer by the name of Julio Canani has been training horses for years! He’ll always show up on a long shot list. Only it seems its at the beginning of meets and not near the end. At least of what I’ve recorded. Knowing that foresight,  gave me Blue Chagall who was in a Turf Stakes race in the 2nd week of racing.  He became a contender in my line based on this fact about Julio Canani. I had Blue Chagall figured to be about 5-1. You’ll notice his last race on turf was at a mile and it was awful, last at 10 lengths back! He had decent Del Mar form and a crafty trainer. He won nicely at 11-1!

Please note most of what you need to know here is that this was information gained outside of what most people can see in a Daily Racing Form therefore giving you an advantage. Knowing information like this is helpful in forming your odds in your betting line as well. Its not always meant to be sure winners every time a previous long shot Trainer enters a horse. Only certain situations will arise  to a point where you just have to bet it, based on previous events. To be successful at the races is thinking outside the Box of the Past Performances. Track your Long Shot Trainers! It’ll pay off! . . . . Thanks to Author Mark Cramer!

Note: I use Google docs spreadsheet to  record, and the information is always there… for years even. 2010 Del Mar’s Long Shot Trainers:  Go here to take a look You won’t be able to sort but you can get an idea.

Some will say that DRF.com Web  Formulator will show it to you as well, and Formulator is an awesome tool! It does let you see odds  but it costs  too. You will make better use of notations you created yourself, way more than anyone else’s.

The awesome folks over at www.DRF.com has daily charts for every track in America for you to gather past information.