ARTICLES
Posted Nov.30th 2009 @ articlesbase.com by James Connelly
SPORTS BETTING SYSTEMS… The Odds on Your Side!
If you enjoy sports betting and you would like to be more successful,then maybe you need to learn from an expert who knows the ins and outs,the ups and downs, the over and unders(pun intended). Its not to say that the expert will give a winner every time you bet,or teach you every possible thing you need to know.I WILL bet you though,they can tell you something you didn’t know,and probably a lot more of it.
I‘m talking strictly Sports Gaming here,not Casino Gambling. I get a kick out of people who would say that Betting Systems are a waste of money. How do you know if the person purchases an e-book is better off if he didn’t buy it. It could be his 1st bet from information gained from his new source of expertise paid for his initial investment.I’m not saying either to blindly go buy a Betting system for 2 or $300.00 and wait for the Bank account to explode.You gotta be smart about it and depends how good you want to become. I know people do buy them and become profitable.To what extent I don’t know.Profit is profit on any level.
So Before you ever consider placing a wager, take the time to properly research the various sports betting systems. It’s one thing to say that their sports betting strategy went 90% plus last year. It’s another thing to prove it, make sure they explain why their system works. They should never really claim to have all the answers.Sportsbooks use systems in their analysis to set more accurate odds. Therefore the novice gambler may believe that using a system will always work, it is the general consensus that at some point, the odds makers will have adjusted for the system to make it no longer profitable. Very short-lived systems are called trends. Any single event that estimates a selection to have a higher likelihood of winning is called an angle as they are meant to be used in conjunction with other angles and trends to produce systems.
However Betting Systems that teach how to look for trends can be profitable as previously stated trends can end as quickly as they appear.What once was a profitable play may not be any more.But I have to say that s the fun of it.I was playing Del Mar(Horse Racing example) one season.After one week of racing I noticed that cool young hot rider Smokin’Joe Talamo was 0-13 when riding Doug O’Neill horses.It continued the entire meet.Any time Joe Talamo was on an O’Neill horse he was automatically a Non-Bet to win! After Del Mar that never appeared again! Thats what a system can’t tell you unless it teaches you how to look for it. If you’d like to purchase a a Betting System. Go for it. What do you got to lose? Really?
DIVE INTO THOROUGHBRED RACING PROFITS! MAKE A BETTING LINE
by James Connelly
Not a Morning Line, a betting line. Which happens to be YOUR LINE. Your Odds! You decide what you think the Horses odds should be and bet accordingly.
How many times have you gone to the track and you’re all excited that you’ve got this one horse who you think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to get anywhere from 6-1 up to 10-1.The morning line will even show it at 6-1. So your at the track and the betting for that particular race opens up. On the toteboard are the odds for you to see on the horse you love and what? He’s 2-1, 9-5, 8-5?
What happened? You thought you were going to get a price? But you know what,so did everyone else. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. It just means your not going get the price you thought you were.The question now becomes…Is he still a bet? Why is this a question? You love the horse, and you were ready and excited to put down $40 to win and now what? What changed? The odds changed,thats all. Your perception as a handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a great chance to win this race even at a price. The problem now has become is he an overlay or an underlay? The fact that you thought you were going to get a good price on this horse means their were going to be other horses to consider.If you thought you were going to get a 6-1 ,7-1 10-1 price then other horses must of figured just as well to win. What odds should they be.What odds should your horse be? What if you really scoured the Past Performances’s for your horse and you thought for sure he’s got a great chance to win,what would his odds be? If they ran the race a 100 times how many races would he win? What percentage out of a 100 races would he win? Ah! Percentage! One must know that odds are basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the odds in of a race into percentages it will always come out to be around 118 -125%. 125%?? Its called the “track take” A morning line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is not! A personal betting line starts off a 100% but can be whittled down to wherever you like depending on which horses you can throw out! Basically your contenders should take up about 80% of your line. A smart handicapper makes his own odds.
So the horse you love, say you gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. What now are you determing his odds to be? Right 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss.50 wins,50 losses. His current odds showing up on the toteboard are 2-1.
Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. Thats called an advantage! So if you’ve made this horse 1-1 and the odds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less than what you perceive the horse is worth. See the logic? As an astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps passing races if you not getting your price. Only if you want to create a profit over the long run. If your there for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking differently. For serious betters this is definitely a consideration and strong advice.
So how does one construct a “betting line?”It takes practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it works,you will be amazed at what you can pull off, especially some high prices.You basically assign odds to every horse in the race .If you can throw out one or two even better.Your betting line basically adds up to 100%. Theres a 100% chance that A horse will win the race. whether its yours or not who knows. But as you assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the field you have to demand a higher return of expectation based on the odds given to each horse.If the 1 Horse on your personal betting line is 3-1 and he’s on the board at 2-1,he’s not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 on the tote and your line shows 5-1, he’s not a bet. If the 3 Horse is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1, theres your bet! Its a distinct advantage based on your perception of what the price should be. Will you always be right ,No.But you’ll have the gut feeling you made the right play for that race and knowing in the long run the payoffs you will get, will over monetize your number of winners.After all is it about how much profit or how many winners?
The Art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. Reading between the lines in the past perfomances,keeping personal betting records,and my favorite keeping trainer stats is how you arrive at different odds than most of the betting crowd. Making and producing betting lines for races can be tedious and sometimes simple,but at the same time fun and rewarding indeed.
This was a concept taught to me by an Author and handicapper by the name of Mark Cramer.I was one of his many students a long time ago.He taught a class on this subject called( Theory of probability as applied to Horse Racing) I believe it was LA City college near Korea town in Los Angeles.He has also authored an array of what I call “timeless” books on thoroughbred racing and handicapping.He is remarkable on the subject and I suggest everyone look into his assortment of excellent teaching and awareness of making betting lines and concepts of betting thoroughbred racing.
There is one book that I suggest to you that the name of this website takes after is called The Odds On Your Side It is an excellent read and very valuable to anyone looking to reap profits and become an intelligent horse racing handicapper. Like Mark used to tell us when Someone would ask him about a race and they would say ” Who do ya like?” His response would be: “What are the odds?” Another memorable idiom was: “Ya don’t have to like ‘em, ya bet ‘em!”
by James Connelly
