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Boise St. 33 Va.Tech 30 In a Thriller!

LANDOVER,Md  - Ah ,the return of college football can just settle ones remorseful feelings about the economy, world problems, or whatever. When a game like Boise St. v Va. Tech plays out on ESPN Monday night like it  thought it would be, is a fantastic way to end the first weekend of the 2010-11 NCAA football season. You can just about forget all those lousy cupcake games when a beauty like this one shows up. This is College football. Just when it looked like the  VA Tech secondary was getting into the head of  Boise’s QB Kellen Moore he finds an opening in the Hokie defense in the last minute for the go ahead TD pass to WR Austin Pettis. Moore finished with  215 yds passing 3 TD’s and No INT’s. Chris Peterson, Boise State Head Coach said “Were proud how our kids played. We still have a lot of things to clean up.” For the Hokies and their fans what a tough loss after fighting back from 17-0, only to lose it in the end 33-30. They’re a real good team (Va Tech) and one would hope they show up in a major Bowl this Season. The Broncos were the +1 dog and needed no points to help wagerers backing  the Broncos. Boise State gets a bye next week, while the Hokies Host James Madison, their version of a cupcake game. -J Connelly

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NCAA Football Cupcake Weekend 2010

by James Connelly

You wouldn’t want to have ESPN covering tonight’s  NCAA’s version of Monday Night football to have anything to do with the opening  of Cupcake Weekend, thats for ESPN 3. Considering the teams on hand, Boise St. and Va Tech, both will be going at it hard and it has meaning. Not like the other cupcake games that went on this weekend. NCAA teams always have and will continue to do this every year. NCAA  Powerhouses gotta eat their cupcake before than can really play for something that matters. Its kind of like their version of the NFL pre season which is basically unwatchable. So for most of the top 25 Collegian teams and others get their fun but only for a week, and by the way… it counts. So when Alabama is 10-0 , it means their really 9-0 due to Cupcake weekend. Here are some of the pre season ..errr…, week one cupcake blowouts:

#1 Alabama eats their cake and destroys San Jose State 48-3 and covers the -38 point spread.

#2 Ohio State wallops Marshall 45-7 covers the -28 point spread.

#4 Florida handles Miami (Ohio) 34-12 but actually fails to cover -36 point spread. Jeff Brantly needed the cupcake to sort himself out.

#8 Nebraska tears up Western Kentucky 49-10  and covers a -37.5 point spread, to win their cupcake game.

#13 Miami -45 Florida A&M-0 The Rattlers had no bite .Canes cover the -40 spread

#17 Arkansas allows 3 points against Tennessee Tech 44-3 Fails to cover a -49.5 point spread. Whats the problem here? Can’t you cover a spread?

#20 Florida State gains momentum against Samford 59-6  gets off to a roaring start by covering the -36 point spread. That not Stanford? right?

Tennesee -50 Tennessee Martin-0  Thanks for playing! Heres your Taco Bell voucher.

South Florida – 59 Stony Brook -14 The Bulls survive the 14-14 start, but were eating cake by the 3rd quarter.

Houston-68 Texas State-28 Never heard of Texas State!

Arizona St-54 Portland State-9 Huh?

These are dumb games. I really don’t see a point to this. Why don’t they admit to it and actually play a pre season game, because thats what they are. They are either pre season games or considered to be scrimmages with a scoreboard. They’re free steps toward an undefeated season. If Boise St. beats Va. Tech, it most likely will be another undefeated season for the Broncos.

Opening weekend games that didn’t disappoint:

Pitt -24 Utah 27  OT You had to figure this game would be close,some decent defense and some sloppy Defense, along with  penalties  allowed Utah  to edge the Panthers.

TCU-30 Oregon St-21 good game to watch, but The Quizz wasn’t enough to overcome TCU’s QB Andy Dalton and their run game  that put up 278 yds on the ground. TCU gets to eat their cupcake next week Tennesee Tech.

LSU-30 North Carolina-24 Great game! NC down a few players before the game and then 20 points at the half, fight back and narrowly miss a chance at the end. Never under estimate Head Coach Butch Davis.

Tulsa -49 East Carolina 51 Love these games. Trading touchdowns one after another. Throw in a 35 yard Hail Mary at the end to win! Can’t get enough! ECU Head Coach Ruffin McNeil wins his debut game for his Alma Mater.

Reverse Cupcake game- Jacksonville State 49  Ole Miss-48 2OT. Jeremiah Masoli was allowed to play after appeal, wasn’t enough. Nice going Miss.

Week one Stat Leaders

QB Passing Yards                     Att -Com -Yds

1 T.J. Yates, UNC 46 28 412
2 G.J. Kinne, TLSA 43 28 399
3 Dominique Davis, ECU 46 27 383

Rushing Yards

1. Kendall Hunter, OKST 257
2. Daniel Thomas, KSU 238
3. DeMarco Murray, OKLA 218

Receiving Yards

1. Jheranie Boyd, UNC 221
2. Juron Criner, ARIZ 187
3. DeMarco Sampson, SDSU 179

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Betting On Sports? Use a System

Contrary to some, betting systems are popular for people who don’t know enough to feel they have an advantage. There is nothing wrong with investing in a proven system even if its not all of what they say, you’re still way better off than if you hadn’t tried it out. Its sad to say only a very small percentage of gamblers actually produce a significant profit wagering on sports. Ask yourself which percentage are you? Betting with confidence at the online betting site is the way to go.

The Best Systems for Purchase Here:

RATED#1 THE SPORTS BETTING CHAMP by John Morrison. He has built a reputation as one of the finest and most successful sports handicappers!He seems to have attracted a lot of attention from the fact his system is proven. Also he’s a Cornell Grad with a PHD Degree in Statistics!”Whether you’re a die-hard gambler, a sports enthusiast, or even someone who despises betting and hates sports but simplyjmorrison wants to money-pile a mountain of extra cash every day doing the easiest job in the world, You’re going to fall head-over-heels-in love with what I’m about to tell you!” …John Morrison Wow! This system specializes in MLB and NBA. The hand written letters sent to John by some notable people are amazing! Check out his 2 pages of letters,e-mails and voice messages containing thousands of testimonials!!! You can’t deny he flat out produces results! Learn from the best. More about John Morrison’s System.

John also does provide an on going Daily e-mail service of NCAA Basketball and Football as well as the NFL and NBA. You can find that one here.

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RATED#2 The Sports Betting Professor by Rich Allen. Rich happens to have a PHD in Mathematics,will tell you probably like most sports gamers would bet with their heart and not their head. People who are just interested in making profit$ instead of enjoying the sports part of it are interested.

RAllen A very Powerful system in which he states a Guarantee that if you don’t profit he doesn’t want your money. Rich says,”Consider this: If you are to lose money in sports betting when using my systems, I insist that you contact me and I’ll never bill you.” That’s hard to turn down. You can find more info on Rich’s System here.

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RATED#3 Bookie Buster by Frank Belanger. Frank’s System isn’t just limited to the big 4 NFL,NBA,MLB and NCAA. He covers it all! Soccer,Hockey,and even Tennis. FBelangerMore than 15,000 people got their hand on his systems and many of these people now consistently make over $500 per day from sports betting around the world. “In just a couple of days, anyone can create an income that will continue to make them money betting on any sport week after week…forever!”says Frank. For a small investment,it might be worth it. Frank Offers the first 3 Chapters for Free ..3 Free systems!


Other Betting Systems for purchase here:

#4 Smart Money Law by Steven Taylor “Win 91.3% of all your Sports Bets.”

#5 SystemSays by Ron Robertson. “Stop Losing and Start Winning”.

#6 Win Win Sports Betting by Jack Pace, ” … how to win consistently. ”

#7 Earnbigsportbetting by Kevin Harvell

#8 Bet on Sports for Massive Profit by Eddie ‘The ACE” Bradford

#9 Triple Play System by James Jones ” The Triple Play System is truly one of a kind.”

#10 Sports Betting Champ John Morrison’s Daily Picks by John Morrison


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2010 Del Mar – Track Biases and Trainer Notes

SAN DIEGO,CA – Where the Turf meets the Surf down in old Del Mar has completed its 3rd week of racing.The Southern California Thoroughbred Club has everything for everyone who visits the track for fun and for those who are serious. The beauty of the track itself and the surrounding area lends itself to those who understand how fun a trip to Del Mar can be. The Crowds in attendance showed in droves on opening day in  which 45,000 plus came through the gate  on a Wednesday to catch the fever. The attendance since has been between 9-25,000 to see if they can catch a long shot. For those who like to gain a bit of an edge when playing and wagering on Thoroughbreds here just a few notes and some observations I’ve come up with hopefully to help  eliminate some horses in races. You need to feel you have some sort of  an edge when playing the races. Please note that track conditions easily can change over the break (Mon & Tues). Still up to this point, here’s how it pans out:

W2WW= Wire to Wire Winners

Main Track Sprints - I’ve got it at 72 main track Sprint races (7 furlongs or less). Of those 72 races 26 of those have been wire to wire winners, with 9 of those winners being the favorite. Also note that 16 of those W2WW , have been maiden races, both Claiming and Specials. Of the 72, there have been 19 sprint  races of $25k Claiming or less (not Maiden) that have had only 1 W2WW. Be careful of low end Claimers ($8-25k)  that show front end speed not going wire to wire.

Turf Routes29 Turf Routes (1 mile or more 2 turns) and only 2 W2WW, at all levels! If you were running 1-2 up to the 1/4 pole, it was over for you. It seems to be catching on now that horses known for their speed are starting to stay back, as well as mid pack horses are going to the front inheriting a lead. However it remains, if you were off the lead going down the back stretch on turf routes its looking good. 15 times out of 24 races the 3-4-5 positions  were won from these 1/4 and 1/2 calls. We did see Siete Machos grab an easy lead on Sunday (Aug 8 7th Race 1 mile on the turf)  and set some decent fractions of 23;  48-1 ; 1:12 , and went Wire to Wire easily. Makes me wonder about the rest of those contenders in that race unable to pose a threat in which the bias was in their favor. On turf  Routes, get away from the front runners. At least up to this point.

Main Track Routes – Over the 3 weeks there have been 20 route races in which 2 have been W2WW (Wire to Wire Winners). One of those W2W was the Grade 2 Cougar II handicap in which Temple City just loped around the track easily. Other than that it been pretty much midpack horses for the most part. Midpack where the winner is around 4th or 5th at the first and 2nd call in a 2 turn Route race.

Longshots Trainers: These are the guys that have horses ready but either they don’t show the form in the Racing form or they have first time starters that the general public has limited information about. We can only find out after the event. Keep track of these types hopefully to gain and advantage next time:

Doug O’Neill, the Notorious trainer is just awesome when you least expect it. He has 4 winners over 6-1. You have to figure he’s got them all ready to run every time, but knowing when to pull the trigger for his longer odds entries is key. All 4 of these come from sprint races, and has had 2 first time starter wins included. Other Trainers with multiple 6-1 or more winners: Julio Canani (9-1, 11-1) Eoin Harty (7-1,9-1), Eric Kruljac 6-1,10-1). Also note that lesser known trainers that recieve no wagering support does not mean these horses aren’t ready to run. Look into them for the little time it may take or else stay away from wagering on those races. Cho Myung Kwan, Eduardo Inda, Santos Perez to name a few. We can’t forget Silverio Martinez who caught us all,  as his 70-1 Flamingtouchofgold entry on Aug 8th (2nd race) touched gold for the person or persons who nailed any exotic wager having to do with that horse.The other clean up closer was Warrens Wild Thing at 32-1 which ran 2nd, trained by Jack Van Berg set off a huge payout as in just over a quarter of a million for the superfecta!

It can  be  difficult to get a feel for every race! You can be a very good astute handicapper and figure how a race will play out when trainer instructions are different that day than what the horse has shown previously. Or their bad starts from the gate and many other factors that you didn’t think would unfold during a race. Or it could have figured exactly like you would have thought the race would unfold and  you still lose or there’s 3-4-5 horses at the wire, its called racing luck. Maintain your steadfast wagering because your rewards will come. Stay confident in your prowess and keep watching and waiting for the edge to appear. They do appear!

I use both TVG.com and Bodog.com for my wagering…. Bodog has landed me the most luck!!!

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Saturday’s Feature race at Del Mar brings you the  $150,000  LA JOLLA HANDICAP (Gr. II) for 3 year olds going a 1 and 1/16 on Turf.  Check out Jay Privman’s article in drf.com  about Summer Movie ready to go in that one.

Sunday’s Feature is the Grade II John C Mabee Stakes for fillies and Mares 3 years old and up going a 1 1/8 on Turf. Check out Steve Anderson’s  drf.com article on Wasted Tears primed for that race.

Find some Value!!!!

J Connelly

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Zenyatta Puts 17-0 On the Line

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DEL MAR, Ca – The 6 year old mare  known as Zenyatta will go again for the third time in her career in the  40th Running of the  Grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Saturday at The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in San Diego. The 17-0 undefeated super horse has shown nothing but heart and wins for owner Mr and Mrs Jerome Moss.  Trainer and caretaker John Sheriffs know exactly what races this beauty performs well in because she’s won them all. None bigger than defeating the boys in the  $5 Million 2009 Breeders Cup Classic ( watch below) to the awe of viewers witnessing a remarkable achievement coming from way back as rider Mike Smith who knows her like no other guided her through traffic at the turn and found a way to win that race. She’s gone on to win her next three races in 2010. Her last race June 13th at Hollywood Park in the Vanity Handicap (watch below) was a real test for Zenyatta who narrowly defeated a very game St.Trinians by a half a length at the wire to the  near horror of  wagerers backing the sure thing. Her only other close call came at this same track of Del Mar in  the same CL Hirsch Stakes in 2009. It”s almost unbelievable that Mike Smith and Zenyatta gives the leaders a 10- to 15 lengths head start around the first turn and down the back stretch just as if she is out for a easy gallop. When all of a sudden she turns it into business . She’s gets a move on in the middle of the far turn turn usually going wide and wider coming for home with a kick like Dave Wottle in the ’72 Olympics. Zenyatta barely won this race last year  by beating  22-1 Annaba’s Creation by a head. Is Zenyatta vulnerable? Can she keep this up? It was close a couple of times and it takes a perfectly timed ride by Mike Smith, but she always seems to find a way. Dance To My Tune will probably be her closest rival tomorrow gave Zenyatta somewhat of a scare as she raced around the track as the front runner and Zenyatta caught her to win by a length  at Santa Anita in March in the Santa Marguerita Handicap. R Interval who is shipping in from Keeneland to grab some spotlight and gets hot riding Rafael Bejarano to upset may have a chance.  My guess is Zenyatta will be 1-9. There’s going to be prices on the others like from 15-1 to 40-1. Are you ready to beat Zenyatta?

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Zenyatta Wins The 2010 Vanity Handicap – Hollywood Park



Zenyatta Wins the 2009 Breeder’s Cup Classic @ Santa Anita

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Lookin At Lucky Romps in the Haskell Invitational

OCEAN PORT,NJ – The Heavily favored Bob Baffert trained Lookin At Lucky (6-5) romped home to win  The 1 Million Dollar Grade I  Haskell Invitational by 4 lengths today at Monmouth Park.  He wound up beating the 2nd choice Trappe Shot who finished 2nd (5-2) and the pace setting 3rd choice First Dude (5-1) who finshed third.  Kentucky Derby Winner Super Saver(7-1) with Calvin Borel aboard was 3rd down the back stretch following the speed was met by Lookin At Lucky at the top of the stretch to what was looking like a stretch duel between the two. However that was short lived as rider Martin Garcia just let Lookin At Lucky have his way and found another gear that gave his mount  a burst of speed that separated him from the field by four lengths in mid stretch and held that lead to win. Jockey Martin Garcia allowed the pace setters to have their way into the first turn and even followed a path what looked like 3 wide on purpose and knew exactly what he was doing when he seemingly relaxed his Colt down the back stretch and then glided his winner from 4th around horses on the far turn to give him an open run that Garcia knows how to do beautifully. Trainer Bob Baffert  expressed how unbelievable the colt has been training, and that “he’s finally come out of his shell, he’s grown up now, and stamped himself to what a great horse he is.” Baffert also expressed that the colt is so much better than he was earlier, so much that he wished the Kentucky Derby was in a month. He seems to strictly be a dirt running horse (as opposed to California synthetic racing surfaces),  which may lead him toward the Travers Stakes late August at Saratoga. That idea most likely keep him away from the Pacific Classic at Del Mar later this month. However at this moment there is no dispute as to who the best 3 year old Colt in the Nation is.  Looking At Lucky’s racing skill supersedes his name as being anything  but lucky.       -J. Connelly

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Cassidy Sweeps at Del Mar: Shades of the Bald Eagle

Trainer James Cassidy takes Del Mar’s Opening Weekend Feature Races

by James Connelly

There once was a man named Charlie. He was most feared on days where the big money mattered. He was good at it and he did it for almost 50 years. Charlie Whittingham was considered as one of the best thoroughbred trainers during his time. He became the all time leading trainer at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park. He saddled over 250 stakes winners including 2 Kentucky Derby winners. (Ferdinand and Sunday Silence). Throughout his long tenure, he kept his competitive edge right to the end. Whenever there was a  Stakes or Handicap  especially on Turf at Hollywood Park, Santa Anita or Del Mar, you could be sure that Charlie’s barn, full of turf running professionals had a hoof in those races and it was a blast to watch! He was known as “The Bald Eagle”. He was a bald headed, tall, thin and lurking man with the Woody Hayes type of hat.  His public persona seemed a man of poise and ease. During those years, I was in awe of him at what he did with his presence in the Southern California Horse Racing scene in the 80′s and 90′s. His  turf  running monsters would always show up and  run their hearts out for him and their owners.  He always had them ready to win! A few that come to mind: Greinton; Rivlia; Dahar; Flawlessly. There’s others but the point is Charlie was the man in his day. His turf battles with the other notable turf trainers such as Bobby Frankel and Neil Drysdale were spectacular enough that even bettors with losing tickets went home knowing they saw brilliance on turf. Charlie Whittingham is no longer with us. His passing was felt by many in 1999, and he is recognized at all tracks with his history, and has a Grade I Turf Race named in his Honor at Hollywood Park.

Enter Southern California Trainer James Cassidy. Trainer James CassidyHis career not as prolonged as Charlie Whittingham’s, nonetheless he brought back a spirit of Charlie with his two Graded Turf winners for the opening weekend at Del Mar. On Saturday he saddled the 7-5 favorite The Usual QT with his most confident jockey aboard, Victor Espinoza in the Grade I Eddie Read , run at  1-1/8 miles on turf. Espinoza sat him 3rd  in a field of 7 until he hit the top of the stretch 3 wide and gained the advantage in mid stretch  to win by 2 lengths and take  the $180,000 prize for first place. He bested a fine field of other Grade I winners. A very nice win!   On Sunday James had another  beauty waiting for her turn, Evening Jewel. He had the 3 yr old filly ready for a  one mile Turf run in the  Grade II San Clemente Handicap. The favored filly at 8-5 with Espinoza aboard along with a field of nine other horses, ran 4th around the track until it mattered and found her best stride in mid stretch and won by a length for Cassidy’s weekend turf sweep and gained a $150,000 for  first place. Its been noted that the owners of Evening Jewel, Mr. and Mrs. Tom Braly are going through a difficult time as Tom battles with cancer.A very nice nice gift!

The Classic races in Horse Racing are awesome. There’s nothing like the Triple Crown. However Graded Turf Racing is just something different that brings out the pureness of the sport.  Although he wasn’t wearing the Woody Hayes hat, but with a Yankee cap that Cassidy has given us a shot back to the days of the Bald Eagle.

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Here Comes Del Mar

Day One Del Mar  2010  ~ First Post 2pm Wednesday July 21

Get the Most Out of this Del Mar Season by preparing for it!

Prepare to create profit by creating a Betting Line!

DIVE INTO THOROUGHBRED RACING PROFITS!  MAKE A BETTING LINE!
Not a Morning Line, I said a betting line. Which happens to be YOUR LINE. Your Odds! You decide what you think the Horses odds should be and bet accordingly.
How many times have you gone to the track and you’re all excited that you’ve got this one horse who you think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to get anywhere from 6-1 up to 15-1.The morning line will even show it at 6-1. So  your at the track and the betting for that particular race opens up. On the toteboard are the odds for you to see on the horse you love and what? He’s  2-1?,9-5?,8-5?
What happened ?You  thought you were going to get a price? But you know what,so did everyone else. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. It just means your not going get the price you though you were.The question now becomes…Is he still a bet? Why is this a question? You love the horse, and you were ready and excited to put down $40 to win and now what.What changed? The odds changed,thats all. Your perception as a handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a great chance to win this race. The problem now has become is he an overlay or an underlay? The fact that you thought you were going to get a good price on this horse  means their were going to be other horses to consider.If you thought you were going to get a 6-1 ,7-1 10-1 price then other horses  must of figured just as well to win. What odds should they be.What odds should your horse be? What if you really scoured the PP’s for your horse and you thought for sure he’s got a great chance to win,what would his odds be?If they ran the race a 100 times how many races would he win? What percentage out of a 100 races would he win? Ah! Percentage! One must know that odds are basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the odds in of a race into percentages it will always come out to be around 118 -125%. 125%?? Its called the “track take” A morning line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is not! A personal betting line starts off a 100 but can be wittled down to wherever you like depending on which horese you can throw out! A smart handicapper makes his own odds.
So the horse you love, say you gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. What  now are  you determing his odds to be? Right 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss.His current odds  showing up on the toteboard are 2-1.
Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. Thats called an advantage! So if you’ve made3 this horse  1-1 and theodds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less.See the logic. As a astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps apssing races if you not getting your price. Only if you want to create a profit oiver the long run. If your there for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking differently. So how does one construct a “betting line?”
It takes practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it works,you will be amazed at what you can pull off. especiallly some high prices.You basically assign odds to every  horse in the race .If you can throw out one or two even better.Your betting line basically adds up to 100%. Thers a 100% chance that A horse will win the race. HWeter its yours or not who knows. But as you assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the field you have to demand a higher return of expectation based on the odds given to each horse.If the 1 Horse is 3-1 and he’s on the board at 2-1,he’s not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 and your line shows 5-1, he’s not a bet.
If Horse 3 is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1. Theres your bet!The Art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. Reading between the lines in the  past perfomances,keeping personal betting records,and my favorite keep trainer stats is  how you arrive at different odds than most of the betting crowd.Making and producing betting lines for races can be tedious and sometimes  simple,but  at the same time fun and rewarding indeed.
This was a concept taught to me by an Author and handicapper by the name of Mark Cramer.
I was one of his many students a long time ago.He taught a class on this subject called(  Theory of probability as applied to Horseracing)  I believe it was LA City college near Korea town in Los Angeles.He has also authored  plenty of what I call “timeless” books on thoroughbred racing and handicapping.He is remarkable on the subject and I suggest everyone look into his assortment of
excellent teaching and awareness of making betting lines and betting the races.
What I’ve done in the past was to keep trainer stats. Basically it came be a little painstaking, but to start out here’s something really cool to do that will pay off sooner or later. Keep track of every trainer at a certain meet,that wins with his horses at odds of 6-1 or better. Keep track which type of race it was and with what jockey.
Thats just basic though it will be beneficial. Has anyone heard of a trainer named Herbert Bacorn? Didn’t think so. I know him,not personally of course,but I watch for him!! Like a hawk watches his prey.Not only will you discover which trainers are performing better than they look in the PP’s, you will also notice which types of races produce longhshots.

A betting line is when YOU decide what you think the Horses odds should be and bet accordingly. YOU create it and its YOUR LINE, YOUR ODDS!

How many times have you gone to the track and you’re all excited that you’ve got this one horse who you think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to get anywhere from 6-1 up to 10-1. The morning line will even show it at 6-1. So  your at the track and the betting for that particular race opens up. On the toteboard are the odds for you to see on the horse you love and what? He’s 7-2 , 5-2, 9-5 ?

What happened? You  thought you were going to get a price? But you know what, so did everyone else. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. It just means your not going get the price you thought you were. The question now becomes…Is he still a bet? Why is this a question? You like the horse, and you were ready and excited to put down $20 to win and now what? What changed?  The odds changed, thats all. Your perception as a handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a great chance to win this race. The problem now has become is he worthy of a wager or not? The fact that you thought you were going to get a good price on this horse  means their were going to be other horses to consider. If you thought you were going to get a 5-1 ,6-1, 10-1 price then other horses  must of figured just as well to win. What odds should they be? What odds should your horse be? What if you really scoured the past performances for your horse and you thought for sure he’s got a great chance to win, what would his odds be? If they ran the race a 100 times how many races would he win? What percentage out of a 100 races would he win? Ah! Percentage! One must know that odds are basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the odds of each horse in  a race into percentages it will always add up to be around 118 -125%.  A 125%?? How can that be? Its called the “track take” A morning line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is not! A personal betting line starts off a 100 but can be whittled down to wherever you like depending on which horese you can throw out! A smart handicapper makes his own odds.

Odds converter So the horse you love, say you gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. What  now are  you determing his odds to be? Right 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss. Fifty wins, fifty losses. His current odds  showing up on the toteboard are 2-1.Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. Thats called an advantage! So if you’ve made  this horse  1-1 and the odds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less.See the logic? As an astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps passing races if you not getting your price. Only if you want to create a profit over the long run. If your there for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking differently.  You could be with someone who’s picked 3 winners to your one. Chances are if your using your betting line and betting for value you’ll out perform him monetarily over the long run, knowing that  it’s about the amount of profit gained  and not the amount of winners in hand that  matters.So how does one construct a “betting line?”

It takes practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it works,you will be amazed at what you can pull off, especiallly some high prices.You basically assign odds to every  horse in the race. If you can throw out one or two even better.Your betting line basically adds up to 100%. There’s a 100% chance that A horse will win the race. But as you assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the field you have to demand a higher return of expectation based on the odds given to each horse. If the 1 Horse is 3-1 in your betting line and he’s on the board at 2-1, he’s not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 on the tote board and your line shows 5-1, he’s not a bet.

If Horse 3 is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1. Theres your bet! The Art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. Reading between the lines in the  past performances,keeping good Jockey stats,and my favorite keep trainer stats is  how you arrive at different odds than most of the betting crowd. Making and producing betting lines for races can be tedious and sometimes  simple,but  at the same time fun and rewarding indeed.

This was a concept taught to me by an Author and handicapper by the name of Mark Cramer. He applied this concept as if you were playing a Roulette Wheel and had a magnet that you were able to repel the Roulette ball from entering into more than a few numbered slots that you knew about. After time you would eventually show a profit by being paid in return higher odds than you were gambling with. Obviously this is not roulette by a much better way of creating creative profit.

I was one of his many students a long time ago.He taught a class on this subject called, I believe it was(Theory of probability as applied to Thoroughbred Horse Racing) at  LA City College near Korea town in Los Angeles. He has also authored  plenty of what I call “timeless” books on thoroughbred racing and handicapping. He is remarkable on the subject and I suggest everyone look into his assortment of excellent teaching and awareness of making betting lines and betting the races.

Below are a few of his books I think you’ll find informative and fascinating. Like I said before they’re timeless.


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Value Handicapping The Art of Making Your Own Lines and Identifying Overlays

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The Odds On Your Side

Thoroughbred Cycles

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Daily Racing Form ~ drf.com Del Mar Special On Line Edition

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Website  www.dmtc.com


Oosthuizen Impresses Golf World: Wins British Open!

SAINT ANDREWS, Scotland – “Louis Who?” “How do you say his name?” “Where is he from?” “Look how little he is.”  ”Man, he smacks the ball!” “He’s like a machine!” ” He’s strong and steady” Thats some of the thoughts and words coming from the home of Golf in Saint Andrews Scotland, as South Africa’s Louis Oosthuizen demolishes the World’s best field at the 2010 British Open. He gained his first lead on the 7th hole in the 2nd round in which he never relinquished. Most people thought, even Tom Watson on Friday afternoon after his 12 under five stroke lead, how this young man would stand up to the pressure of Major Championship Golf as the leader after two rounds. He didn’t budge! Chased by Paul Casey in the final round but for only a  few holes as the relentless steady play by Oosthuizen may have even rattled Casey a bit by eagling  the par 4 9th hole after driving the green behind Casey who only managed a two putt, Louis drained his 40 footer. The win was pretty much over when Casey triple bogeyed  12 giving Oosthuizen his wide unneeded margin to just play cool smart golf the rest of the way. He finished up at 16 under to win by seven strokes! Commentators on ESPN were totally in awe of the young man as they could only be impressed by his flawless swing, coolness and professionalism. His stroll up Eighteen was well recognized by the home crowd of Scotland, where it all began. Not too many people knew his name four days ago, but will now be remembered forever!    Cheers Mate!       By J.Connelly

Louis Oosthuizen 2010  previous results   europeantour.com

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Spain Wins the 2010 World Cup!

Spain Edges Holland 1-0 in Final to win The 2010 World Cup

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa  Its been called “The Beautiful Game” the sport of soccer has, but this  World Cup Final was anything but. A record 13 Yellow cards were doled out. Seemingly for the Dutch they were given 8 of them. However that has been part of their game. It was just enough though for Spain to use it against them to capitalize. Lots of tries and misses seemed to plague the contest which may have gotten both teams frustrated with their inability to score for more than 115 minutes. Holland’s John Hietinga picked up his second yellow near his goal to the dismay of Holland followers he was sent off the pitch after the yellow turned Red. Spain was given a man advantage for the remainder 11 minutes or so, and Spain found an opening. It was Andres Iniesta open in the box took a short pass from Fabregas and directed a quick strike off the arms of Holland’s Keeper Stekelenburg in the 116′ into the back of the net for the game’s only goal. The joy of relief for  the Spainards and their followers was to continue to the end of extra time as Spain wins the 2010 World Cup.

At the start of the World Cup Spain was the wagering favorite at 4-1, The Netherlands were 11-1 at Bodog.com

WORLD CUP 2010 AWARDS

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LeBron to Miami

July 08, 2010 11:00 am PST – According to Steven A Smith, he is holding to the belief of his that Lebron will head south to Miami to complete the what could possibly be one of the greatest trios collected to perform on an NBA court in recent history. Prominent Sports Journalist, and radio host Steven A. Smith who is well respected had come out earlier last week with this report and has been steadfast with it since. Speaking with Grant Napear who is guest hosting on the Jim Rome Show has validated  his belief again that Lebron James will make the move to Miami and use the TV time to gracefully bow out of Cleveland and thank them for the years of appreciation toward him as a player and to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  I wonder where the Soccer Octopus would have Lebron go to?

July 08, 2010  6:25pm PST The Decision is in….. Its The Heat!!

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World Cup 2010 Semi Final Spain -1 Germany -0

Puyol’s header enough to advance Spain to first World Cup final

From ESPNsoccernet.com

DURBAN, South Africa — They pressured Germany the entire match and peppered its goalkeeper so many times a score seemed inevitable. With the World Cup final in reach — and Queen Sofia cheering from the stands — La Roja came through with their best game yet. Finally, with a mighty swing of his head that sent his long, curly locks flying, Spain’s Carles Puyol got it done. Full Story

Holland Bests Uruguay: Advances to World Cup Finals

WORLD CUP 2010 SEMI-FINAL  Holland-3 Uruguay-2

[Cape Town, South Africa] The Dutch know the main thing about World Cup Football… They know how to win games. Thats all it takes! It doesn’t have have to be smooth, rhythmic, poetic, or creative like Brazil.  Just get the ball into the other teams net more times than they do. That’s Dutch football. A feisty bunch of team players who don’t seem to give up until the job is done, did what they needed to do and defeated Uruguay 3-2 in Cape Town. On the other hand, too bad for Uruguay. A very good team that had some unfortunate circumstances entering in their semi final with The Netherlands. Without their formidable striker in Luis Suarez, they also had to bear without their main force of  the suspended defender Jorge Fucile and captain Diego Lugano, who came off injured in the first half of the quarterfinal against Ghana. Uruguay’s Diego Forlan, as awesome as this guy is on a pitch, just couldn’t do it all himself. I almost would have bet he could, but withheld that task. The Dutch are a good team that was better than Uruguay. Enough so that they move to the finals of the World Cup 2010. The opening goal in the 18th minute by Holland’s Giovanni Van Bronckhorst was a sight to behold for those who witnessed it as it happened. A frozen rope that found the upper inside right corner of the net  from 25m made it 1-0. Uruguay not  to be outdone when Diego Forlan figured he needed to make something happen. In the 41′ he sent a rocketing Jabulani ball that the Dutch Keeper Stekelenburg could only flirt with by the tips of his fingers due to the fierce velocity as  he watched it pierce the back of the net. It was nothing but a World Class goal that tied it 1-1. The dutch force provided the deciding goals by (70′) Wesley Sneijder
(73′) Arjen Robben to seal the Victory. Uruguay made it interesting to the last seconds when Maximiliano Pereira scored in the 90′ only to run out of time.

The Netherlands were a heavy  Favorite going in at Bodog.com -165, while Uruguay was + 450. Holland will play the winner of the Germany/ Spain match Wednesday for the privilege to play for the the World Title. Uruguay will return to play for 3rd place on Saturday by playing the loser of Germany/Spain.

Note :Germany was in this spot last World Cup 2006 losing to Italy 2-0  in Extra time as Italy scores twice past the 118th minute. I’m sure the thought of losing that match after getting so far should linger in the minds of some of the players that are here this World Cup.. Guys like Klose, Podolski and Schweinstieger. Spain is coming in as a narrow favorite +155 to Germany’s +165. Its close!  -J.Connelly

Here’s the Spain / Germany Line

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