Here Comes Del Mar
Day One Del Mar 2010 ~ First Post 2pm Wednesday July 21
Get the Most Out of this Del Mar Season by preparing for it!
Prepare to create profit by creating a Betting Line!
DIVE INTO THOROUGHBRED RACING PROFITS! MAKE A BETTING LINE!
Not a Morning Line, I said a betting line. Which happens to be YOUR LINE. Your Odds! You decide what you think the Horses odds should be and bet accordingly.
How many times have you gone to the track and you’re all excited that you’ve got this one horse who you think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to get anywhere from 6-1 up to 15-1.The morning line will even show it at 6-1. So your at the track and the betting for that particular race opens up. On the toteboard are the odds for you to see on the horse you love and what? He’s 2-1?,9-5?,8-5?
What happened ?You thought you were going to get a price? But you know what,so did everyone else. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. It just means your not going get the price you though you were.The question now becomes…Is he still a bet? Why is this a question? You love the horse, and you were ready and excited to put down $40 to win and now what.What changed? The odds changed,thats all. Your perception as a handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a great chance to win this race. The problem now has become is he an overlay or an underlay? The fact that you thought you were going to get a good price on this horse means their were going to be other horses to consider.If you thought you were going to get a 6-1 ,7-1 10-1 price then other horses must of figured just as well to win. What odds should they be.What odds should your horse be? What if you really scoured the PP’s for your horse and you thought for sure he’s got a great chance to win,what would his odds be?If they ran the race a 100 times how many races would he win? What percentage out of a 100 races would he win? Ah! Percentage! One must know that odds are basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the odds in of a race into percentages it will always come out to be around 118 -125%. 125%?? Its called the “track take” A morning line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is not! A personal betting line starts off a 100 but can be wittled down to wherever you like depending on which horese you can throw out! A smart handicapper makes his own odds.
So the horse you love, say you gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. What now are you determing his odds to be? Right 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss.His current odds showing up on the toteboard are 2-1.
Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. Thats called an advantage! So if you’ve made3 this horse 1-1 and theodds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less.See the logic. As a astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps apssing races if you not getting your price. Only if you want to create a profit oiver the long run. If your there for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking differently. So how does one construct a “betting line?”
It takes practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it works,you will be amazed at what you can pull off. especiallly some high prices.You basically assign odds to every horse in the race .If you can throw out one or two even better.Your betting line basically adds up to 100%. Thers a 100% chance that A horse will win the race. HWeter its yours or not who knows. But as you assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the field you have to demand a higher return of expectation based on the odds given to each horse.If the 1 Horse is 3-1 and he’s on the board at 2-1,he’s not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 and your line shows 5-1, he’s not a bet.
If Horse 3 is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1. Theres your bet!The Art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. Reading between the lines in the past perfomances,keeping personal betting records,and my favorite keep trainer stats is how you arrive at different odds than most of the betting crowd.Making and producing betting lines for races can be tedious and sometimes simple,but at the same time fun and rewarding indeed.
This was a concept taught to me by an Author and handicapper by the name of Mark Cramer.
I was one of his many students a long time ago.He taught a class on this subject called( Theory of probability as applied to Horseracing) I believe it was LA City college near Korea town in Los Angeles.He has also authored plenty of what I call “timeless” books on thoroughbred racing and handicapping.He is remarkable on the subject and I suggest everyone look into his assortment of
excellent teaching and awareness of making betting lines and betting the races.
What I’ve done in the past was to keep trainer stats. Basically it came be a little painstaking, but to start out here’s something really cool to do that will pay off sooner or later. Keep track of every trainer at a certain meet,that wins with his horses at odds of 6-1 or better. Keep track which type of race it was and with what jockey.
Thats just basic though it will be beneficial. Has anyone heard of a trainer named Herbert Bacorn? Didn’t think so. I know him,not personally of course,but I watch for him!! Like a hawk watches his prey.Not only will you discover which trainers are performing better than they look in the PP’s, you will also notice which types of races produce longhshots.
A betting line is when YOU decide what you think the Horses odds should be and bet accordingly. YOU create it and its YOUR LINE, YOUR ODDS!
How many times have you gone to the track and you’re all excited that you’ve got this one horse who you think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to get anywhere from 6-1 up to 10-1. The morning line will even show it at 6-1. So your at the track and the betting for that particular race opens up. On the toteboard are the odds for you to see on the horse you love and what? He’s 7-2 , 5-2, 9-5 ?
What happened? You thought you were going to get a price? But you know what, so did everyone else. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. It just means your not going get the price you thought you were. The question now becomes…Is he still a bet? Why is this a question? You like the horse, and you were ready and excited to put down $20 to win and now what? What changed? The odds changed, thats all. Your perception as a handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a great chance to win this race. The problem now has become is he worthy of a wager or not? The fact that you thought you were going to get a good price on this horse means their were going to be other horses to consider. If you thought you were going to get a 5-1 ,6-1, 10-1 price then other horses must of figured just as well to win. What odds should they be? What odds should your horse be? What if you really scoured the past performances for your horse and you thought for sure he’s got a great chance to win, what would his odds be? If they ran the race a 100 times how many races would he win? What percentage out of a 100 races would he win? Ah! Percentage! One must know that odds are basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the odds of each horse in a race into percentages it will always add up to be around 118 -125%. A 125%?? How can that be? Its called the “track take” A morning line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is not! A personal betting line starts off a 100 but can be whittled down to wherever you like depending on which horese you can throw out! A smart handicapper makes his own odds.
So the horse you love, say you gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. What now are you determing his odds to be? Right 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss. Fifty wins, fifty losses. His current odds showing up on the toteboard are 2-1.Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. Thats called an advantage! So if you’ve made this horse 1-1 and the odds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less.See the logic? As an astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps passing races if you not getting your price. Only if you want to create a profit over the long run. If your there for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking differently. You could be with someone who’s picked 3 winners to your one. Chances are if your using your betting line and betting for value you’ll out perform him monetarily over the long run, knowing that it’s about the amount of profit gained and not the amount of winners in hand that matters.So how does one construct a “betting line?”
It takes practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it works,you will be amazed at what you can pull off, especiallly some high prices.You basically assign odds to every horse in the race. If you can throw out one or two even better.Your betting line basically adds up to 100%. There’s a 100% chance that A horse will win the race. But as you assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the field you have to demand a higher return of expectation based on the odds given to each horse. If the 1 Horse is 3-1 in your betting line and he’s on the board at 2-1, he’s not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 on the tote board and your line shows 5-1, he’s not a bet.
If Horse 3 is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1. Theres your bet! The Art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. Reading between the lines in the past performances,keeping good Jockey stats,and my favorite keep trainer stats is how you arrive at different odds than most of the betting crowd. Making and producing betting lines for races can be tedious and sometimes simple,but at the same time fun and rewarding indeed.
This was a concept taught to me by an Author and handicapper by the name of Mark Cramer. He applied this concept as if you were playing a Roulette Wheel and had a magnet that you were able to repel the Roulette ball from entering into more than a few numbered slots that you knew about. After time you would eventually show a profit by being paid in return higher odds than you were gambling with. Obviously this is not roulette by a much better way of creating creative profit.
I was one of his many students a long time ago.He taught a class on this subject called, I believe it was(Theory of probability as applied to Thoroughbred Horse Racing) at LA City College near Korea town in Los Angeles. He has also authored plenty of what I call “timeless” books on thoroughbred racing and handicapping. He is remarkable on the subject and I suggest everyone look into his assortment of excellent teaching and awareness of making betting lines and betting the races.
Below are a few of his books I think you’ll find informative and fascinating. Like I said before they’re timeless.
*
*
*
Value Handicapping The Art of Making Your Own Lines and Identifying Overlays
*______________________________________________________________________________________
*********
Daily Racing Form ~ drf.com Del Mar Special On Line Edition
Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Website www.dmtc.com
