You wouldn’t want to have ESPN covering tonight’s  NCAA’s version of Monday Night football to have anything to do with the opening  of Cupcake Weekend, thats for ESPN 3. Considering the teams on hand, Boise St. and Va Tech, both will be going at it hard and it has meaning. Not like the other cupcake games that went on this weekend. NCAA teams always have and will continue to do this every year. NCAA  Powerhouses gotta eat their cupcake before than can really play for something that matters. Its kind of like their version of the NFL pre season which is basically unwatchable. So for most of the top 25 Collegian teams and others get their fun but only for a week, and by the way… it counts. So when Alabama is 10-0 , it means their really 9-0 due to Cupcake weekend. Here are some of the pre season ..errr…, week one cupcake blowouts:

#1 Alabama eats their cake and destroys San Jose State 48-3 and covers the -38 point spread.

#2 Ohio State wallops Marshall 45-7 covers the -28 point spread.

#4 Florida handles Miami (Ohio) 34-12 but actually fails to cover -36 point spread. Jeff Brantly needed the cupcake to sort himself out.

#8 Nebraska tears up Western Kentucky 49-10  and covers a -37.5 point spread, to win their cupcake game.

#13 Miami -45 Florida A&M-0 The Rattlers had no bite .Canes cover the -40 spread

#17 Arkansas allows 3 points against Tennessee Tech 44-3 Fails to cover a -49.5 point spread. Whats the problem here? Can’t you cover a spread?

#20 Florida State gains momentum against Samford 59-6  gets off to a roaring start by covering the -36 point spread. That not Stanford? right?

Tennesee -50 Tennessee Martin-0  Thanks for playing! Heres your Taco Bell voucher.

South Florida – 59 Stony Brook -14 The Bulls survive the 14-14 start, but were eating cake by the 3rd quarter.

Houston-68 Texas State-28 Never heard of Texas State!

Arizona St-54 Portland State-9 Huh?

These are dumb games. I really don’t see a point to this. Why don’t they admit to it and actually play a pre season game, because thats what they are. They are either pre season games or considered to be scrimmages with a scoreboard. They’re free steps toward an undefeated season. If Boise St. beats Va. Tech, it most likely will be another undefeated season for the Broncos.

Opening weekend games that didn’t disappoint:

Pitt -24 Utah 27  OT You had to figure this game would be close,some decent defense and some sloppy Defense, along with  penalties  allowed Utah  to edge the Panthers.

TCU-30 Oregon St-21 good game to watch, but The Quizz wasn’t enough to overcome TCU’s QB Andy Dalton and their run game  that put up 278 yds on the ground. TCU gets to eat their cupcake next week Tennesee Tech.

LSU-30 North Carolina-24 Great game! NC down a few players before the game and then 20 points at the half, fight back and narrowly miss a chance at the end. Never under estimate Head Coach Butch Davis.

Tulsa -49 East Carolina 51 Love these games. Trading touchdowns one after another. Throw in a 35 yard Hail Mary at the end to win! Can’t get enough! ECU Head Coach Ruffin McNeil wins his debut game for his Alma Mater.

Reverse Cupcake game- Jacksonville State 49  Ole Miss-48 2OT. Jeremiah Masoli was allowed to play after appeal, wasn’t enough. Nice going Miss.

Week one Stat Leaders

QB Passing Yards                     Att -Com -Yds

Rushing Yards

Receiving Yards

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W2WW= Wire to Wire Winners

Main Track Sprints - I’ve got it at 72 main track Sprint races (7 furlongs or less). Of those 72 races 26 of those have been wire to wire winners, with 9 of those winners being the favorite. Also note that 16 of those W2WW , have been maiden races, both Claiming and Specials. Of the 72, there have been 19 sprint  races of $25k Claiming or less (not Maiden) that have had only 1 W2WW. Be careful of low end Claimers ($8-25k)  that show front end speed not going wire to wire.

Turf Routes – 29 Turf Routes (1 mile or more 2 turns) and only 2 W2WW, at all levels! If you were running 1-2 up to the 1/4 pole, it was over for you. It seems to be catching on now that horses known for their speed are starting to stay back, as well as mid pack horses are going to the front inheriting a lead. However it remains, if you were off the lead going down the back stretch on turf routes its looking good. 15 times out of 24 races the 3-4-5 positions  were won from these 1/4 and 1/2 calls. We did see Siete Machos grab an easy lead on Sunday (Aug 8 7th Race 1 mile on the turf)  and set some decent fractions of 23;  48-1 ; 1:12 , and went Wire to Wire easily. Makes me wonder about the rest of those contenders in that race unable to pose a threat in which the bias was in their favor. On turf  Routes, get away from the front runners. At least up to this point.

Main Track Routes – Over the 3 weeks there have been 20 route races in which 2 have been W2WW (Wire to Wire Winners). One of those W2W was the Grade 2 Cougar II handicap in which Temple City just loped around the track easily. Other than that it been pretty much midpack horses for the most part. Midpack where the winner is around 4th or 5th at the first and 2nd call in a 2 turn Route race.

Longshots Trainers: These are the guys that have horses ready but either they don’t show the form in the Racing form or they have first time starters that the general public has limited information about. We can only find out after the event. Keep track of these types hopefully to gain and advantage next time:

Doug O’Neill, the Notorious trainer is just awesome when you least expect it. He has 4 winners over 6-1. You have to figure he’s got them all ready to run every time, but knowing when to pull the trigger for his longer odds entries is key. All 4 of these come from sprint races, and has had 2 first time starter wins included. Other Trainers with multiple 6-1 or more winners: Julio Canani (9-1, 11-1) Eoin Harty (7-1,9-1), Eric Kruljac 6-1,10-1). Also note that lesser known trainers that recieve no wagering support does not mean these horses aren’t ready to run. Look into them for the little time it may take or else stay away from wagering on those races. Cho Myung Kwan, Eduardo Inda, Santos Perez to name a few. We can’t forget Silverio Martinez who caught us all,  as his 70-1 Flamingtouchofgold entry on Aug 8th (2nd race) touched gold for the person or persons who nailed any exotic wager having to do with that horse.The other clean up closer was Warrens Wild Thing at 32-1 which ran 2nd, trained by Jack Van Berg set off a huge payout as in just over a quarter of a million for the superfecta!

It can  be  difficult to get a feel for every race! You can be a very good astute handicapper and figure how a race will play out when trainer instructions are different that day than what the horse has shown previously. Or their bad starts from the gate and many other factors that you didn’t think would unfold during a race. Or it could have figured exactly like you would have thought the race would unfold and  you still lose or there’s 3-4-5 horses at the wire, its called racing luck. Maintain your steadfast wagering because your rewards will come. Stay confident in your prowess and keep watching and waiting for the edge to appear. They do appear!

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Saturday’s Feature race at Del Mar brings you the  $150,000  LA JOLLA HANDICAP (Gr. II) for 3 year olds going a 1 and 1/16 on Turf.  Check out Jay Privman’s article in drf.com  about Summer Movie ready to go in that one.

Sunday’s Feature is the Grade II John C Mabee Stakes for fillies and Mares 3 years old and up going a 1 1/8 on Turf. Check out Steve Anderson’s  drf.com article on Wasted Tears primed for that race.

Find some Value!!!!

J Connelly

DEL MAR, Ca – The 6 year old mare  known as Zenyatta will go again for the third time in her career in the  40th Running of the  Grade I Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Saturday at The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in San Diego. The 17-0 undefeated super horse has shown nothing but heart and wins for owner Mr and Mrs Jerome Moss.  Trainer and caretaker John Sheriffs know exactly what races this beauty performs well in because she’s won them all. None bigger than defeating the boys in the  $5 Million 2009 Breeders Cup Classic ( watch below) to the awe of viewers witnessing a remarkable achievement coming from way back as rider Mike Smith who knows her like no other guided her through traffic at the turn and found a way to win that race. She’s gone on to win her next three races in 2010. Her last race June 13th at Hollywood Park in the Vanity Handicap (watch below) was a real test for Zenyatta who narrowly defeated a very game St.Trinians by a half a length at the wire to the  near horror of  wagerers backing the sure thing. Her only other close call came at this same track of Del Mar in  the same CL Hirsch Stakes in 2009. It”s almost unbelievable that Mike Smith and Zenyatta gives the leaders a 10- to 15 lengths head start around the first turn and down the back stretch just as if she is out for a easy gallop. When all of a sudden she turns it into business . She’s gets a move on in the middle of the far turn turn usually going wide and wider coming for home with a kick like Dave Wottle in the ’72 Olympics. Zenyatta barely won this race last year  by beating  22-1 Annaba’s Creation by a head. Is Zenyatta vulnerable? Can she keep this up? It was close a couple of times and it takes a perfectly timed ride by Mike Smith, but she always seems to find a way. Dance To My Tune will probably be her closest rival tomorrow gave Zenyatta somewhat of a scare as she raced around the track as the front runner and Zenyatta caught her to win by a length  at Santa Anita in March in the Santa Marguerita Handicap. R Interval who is shipping in from Keeneland to grab some spotlight and gets hot riding Rafael Bejarano to upset may have a chance.  My guess is Zenyatta will be 1-9. There’s going to be prices on the others like from 15-1 to 40-1. Are you ready to beat Zenyatta?

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Zenyatta Wins The 2010 Vanity Handicap – Hollywood Park

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Zenyatta Wins the 2009 Breeder’s Cup Classic @ Santa Anita

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by James Connelly

There once was a man named Charlie. He was most feared on days where the big money mattered. He was good at it and he did it for almost 50 years. Charlie Whittingham was considered as one of the best thoroughbred trainers during his time. He became the all time leading trainer at Santa Anita and Hollywood Park. He saddled over 250 stakes winners including 2 Kentucky Derby winners. (Ferdinand and Sunday Silence). Throughout his long tenure, he kept his competitive edge right to the end. Whenever there was a  Stakes or Handicap  especially on Turf at Hollywood Park, Santa Anita or Del Mar, you could be sure that Charlie’s barn, full of turf running professionals had a hoof in those races and it was a blast to watch! He was known as “The Bald Eagle”. He was a bald headed, tall, thin and lurking man with the Woody Hayes type of hat.  His public persona seemed a man of poise and ease. During those years, I was in awe of him at what he did with his presence in the Southern California Horse Racing scene in the 80′s and 90′s. His  turf  running monsters would always show up and  run their hearts out for him and their owners.  He always had them ready to win! A few that come to mind: Greinton; Rivlia; Dahar; Flawlessly. There’s others but the point is Charlie was the man in his day. His turf battles with the other notable turf trainers such as Bobby Frankel and Neil Drysdale were spectacular enough that even bettors with losing tickets went home knowing they saw brilliance on turf. Charlie Whittingham is no longer with us. His passing was felt by many in 1999, and he is recognized at all tracks with his history, and has a Grade I Turf Race named in his Honor at Hollywood Park.

Enter Southern California Trainer James Cassidy. His career not as prolonged as Charlie Whittingham’s, nonetheless he brought back a spirit of Charlie with his two Graded Turf winners for the opening weekend at Del Mar. On Saturday he saddled the 7-5 favorite The Usual QT with his most confident jockey aboard, Victor Espinoza in the Grade I Eddie Read , run at  1-1/8 miles on turf. Espinoza sat him 3rd  in a field of 7 until he hit the top of the stretch 3 wide and gained the advantage in mid stretch  to win by 2 lengths and take  the $180,000 prize for first place. He bested a fine field of other Grade I winners. A very nice win!   On Sunday James had another  beauty waiting for her turn, Evening Jewel. He had the 3 yr old filly ready for a  one mile Turf run in the  Grade II San Clemente Handicap. The favored filly at 8-5 with Espinoza aboard along with a field of nine other horses, ran 4th around the track until it mattered and found her best stride in mid stretch and won by a length for Cassidy’s weekend turf sweep and gained a $150,000 for  first place. Its been noted that the owners of Evening Jewel, Mr. and Mrs. Tom Braly are going through a difficult time as Tom battles with cancer.A very nice nice gift!

The Classic races in Horse Racing are awesome. There’s nothing like the Triple Crown. However Graded Turf Racing is just something different that brings out the pureness of the sport.  Although he wasn’t wearing the Woody Hayes hat, but with a Yankee cap that Cassidy has given us a shot back to the days of the Bald Eagle.

Day One Del Mar  2010  ~ First Post 2pm Wednesday July 21

Get the Most Out of this Del Mar Season by preparing for it!

Prepare to create profit by creating a Betting Line!

A betting line is when YOU decide what you think the Horses odds should be and bet accordingly. YOU create it and its YOUR LINE, YOUR ODDS!

How many times have you gone to the track and you’re all excited that you’ve got this one horse who you think may be a price. You love him. Your expecting to get anywhere from 6-1 up to 10-1. The morning line will even show it at 6-1. So  your at the track and the betting for that particular race opens up. On the toteboard are the odds for you to see on the horse you love and what? He’s 7-2 , 5-2, 9-5 ?

What happened? You  thought you were going to get a price? But you know what, so did everyone else. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to win. It just means your not going get the price you thought you were. The question now becomes…Is he still a bet? Why is this a question? You like the horse, and you were ready and excited to put down $20 to win and now what? What changed?  The odds changed, thats all. Your perception as a handicapper are right on! You figured out who had a great chance to win this race. The problem now has become is he worthy of a wager or not? The fact that you thought you were going to get a good price on this horse  means their were going to be other horses to consider. If you thought you were going to get a 5-1 ,6-1, 10-1 price then other horses  must of figured just as well to win. What odds should they be? What odds should your horse be? What if you really scoured the past performances for your horse and you thought for sure he’s got a great chance to win, what would his odds be? If they ran the race a 100 times how many races would he win? What percentage out of a 100 races would he win? Ah! Percentage! One must know that odds are basically percentages of the mutuel pool. The only problem with mutuel pool is that when you convert the odds of each horse in  a race into percentages it will always add up to be around 118 -125%.  A 125%?? How can that be? Its called the “track take” A morning line is based on the track take. A personal betting line is not! A personal betting line starts off a 100 but can be whittled down to wherever you like depending on which horese you can throw out! A smart handicapper makes his own odds.

So the horse you love, say you gave him a chance of winning 50 races out of 100. What  now are  you determing his odds to be? Right 1-1. Even money,one win,one loss. Fifty wins, fifty losses. His current odds  showing up on the toteboard are 2-1.Is he still a bet? Absolutely! Your giving him an even money chance at 1-1 and your going to get paid at 2-1. Thats called an advantage! So if you’ve made  this horse  1-1 and the odds are flashing 4-5 is he still a bet? No. You are now in a disadvantage. Buying a wager at 1-1 and if he wins your going to get paid less.See the logic? As an astute thoroughbred racing handicapper, you have to demand your price! Which entails perhaps passing races if you not getting your price. Only if you want to create a profit over the long run. If your there for the day just want to have fun,you might be thinking differently.  You could be with someone who’s picked 3 winners to your one. Chances are if your using your betting line and betting for value you’ll out perform him monetarily over the long run, knowing that  it’s about the amount of profit gained  and not the amount of winners in hand that  matters.So how does one construct a “betting line?”

It takes practice and knowledge on how to do so. But when it works,you will be amazed at what you can pull off, especiallly some high prices.You basically assign odds to every  horse in the race. If you can throw out one or two even better.Your betting line basically adds up to 100%. There’s a 100% chance that A horse will win the race. But as you assign odds(assign percentages) to the horses in the field you have to demand a higher return of expectation based on the odds given to each horse. If the 1 Horse is 3-1 in your betting line and he’s on the board at 2-1, he’s not a bet! If the 2 horse is 7-2 on the tote board and your line shows 5-1, he’s not a bet.

If Horse 3 is on the board at 9-1 you have him at 6-1. Theres your bet! The Art of it all is constructing a betting line in itself. Reading between the lines in the  past performances,keeping good Jockey stats,and my favorite keep trainer stats is  how you arrive at different odds than most of the betting crowd. Making and producing betting lines for races can be tedious and sometimes  simple,but  at the same time fun and rewarding indeed.

This was a concept taught to me by an Author and handicapper by the name of Mark Cramer. He applied this concept as if you were playing a Roulette Wheel and had a magnet that you were able to repel the Roulette ball from entering into more than a few numbered slots that you knew about. After time you would eventually show a profit by being paid in return higher odds than you were gambling with. Obviously this is not roulette by a much better way of creating creative profit.

I was one of his many students a long time ago.He taught a class on this subject called, I believe it was(Theory of probability as applied to Thoroughbred Horse Racing) at  LA City College near Korea town in Los Angeles. He has also authored  plenty of what I call “timeless” books on thoroughbred racing and handicapping. He is remarkable on the subject and I suggest everyone look into his assortment of excellent teaching and awareness of making betting lines and betting the races.

Below are a few of his books I think you’ll find informative and fascinating. Like I said before they’re timeless.

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Value Handicapping The Art of Making Your Own Lines and Identifying Overlays

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The Odds On Your Side

Thoroughbred Cycles

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Daily Racing Form ~ drf.com Del Mar Special On Line Edition

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club Website  www.dmtc.com

Louis Oosthuizen 2010  previous results   europeantour.com

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa  Its been called “The Beautiful Game” the sport of soccer has, but this  World Cup Final was anything but. A record 13 Yellow cards were doled out. Seemingly for the Dutch they were given 8 of them. However that has been part of their game. It was just enough though for Spain to use it against them to capitalize. Lots of tries and misses seemed to plague the contest which may have gotten both teams frustrated with their inability to score for more than 115 minutes. Holland’s John Hietinga picked up his second yellow near his goal to the dismay of Holland followers he was sent off the pitch after the yellow turned Red. Spain was given a man advantage for the remainder 11 minutes or so, and Spain found an opening. It was Andres Iniesta open in the box took a short pass from Fabregas and directed a quick strike off the arms of Holland’s Keeper Stekelenburg in the 116′ into the back of the net for the game’s only goal. The joy of relief for  the Spainards and their followers was to continue to the end of extra time as Spain wins the 2010 World Cup.

At the start of the World Cup Spain was the wagering favorite at 4-1, The Netherlands were 11-1 at Bodog.com

WORLD CUP 2010 AWARDS