Here are ESPN’s Will Harris’ STRAIGHT UP picks
Heads Up! These are NOT ATS PICKS! (unless the pick is a dog, and you decide whether his pick as the favorite should cover)
By Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
Archive
Southern Miss (-7) over Nevada: Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24
Nevada certainly has the advantage of familiarity when it comes to the venue, as the Wolf Pack played in this bowl in 2009 and face conference foe Hawaii there every other year. However, Aloha Stadium has been unkind to Chris Ault’s program, which has won there just once in the past eight trips. Nor has Ault been very successful in the postseason, dropping four straight bowls before last year’s victory over underdog Boston College. For Southern Miss, this is a controversial bowl assignment, as teams from that part of the country typically lose money on Hawaii Bowl trips and the now-deposed athletic director unwisely permitted an outgoing coach to make the bowl decision for the team. Larry Fedora is sticking around to coach this game before moving on to Chapel Hill, though, and as a group, his players are delighted to be making this trip, are happy to have Fedora lead them one last time and bear him no ill will for making the move. The Eagles’ Conference USA championship has been overshadowed by the changes in the athletic department, but the players’ support for their outgoing coach’s decisions make it likely that this will be a more focused and unified team than many others would be under similar circumstances. Both offenses move the ball but slow themselves with turnovers, penalties and poor red zone production. Southern Miss, though, fields a much more talented defense and far superior special teams, the combination of which has produced 12 non-offensive touchdowns this season. The Eagles are the better team and are capable of approaching this as a business trip. If it turns out that banged-up Wolf Pack quarterback Cody Fajardo can’t play, Southern Miss could put this one away early.
North Carolina (+5.5) over Missouri: Independence Bowl, Dec. 26
Outgoing Big 12 member Missouri had to figure that it wouldn’t command a lofty place in the league’s bowl pecking order, and sure enough, when the conference produced eight bowl-eligible teams for seven spots, the Tigers were the ones left out, leaving the school to scramble for an at-large berth in Shreveport, La. North Carolina can’t be thrilled about landing one of the ACC’s least-coveted berths either, but the Heels at least have the incentive to play hard for popular outgoing interim coach Everett Withers. North Carolina closed the season with two of its best games, while Missouri finished up with two of its worst — lackluster wins as big favorites. This Tigers edition has been the most run-oriented team of the Gary Pinkel era, rushing the ball on 60 percent of its snaps. Pinkel and offensive coordinator David Yost have tailored the offense to the talents of still-developing dual-threat quarterback James Franklin and a trio of talented running backs who have taken turns fighting injury. It’s Kendial Lawrence‘s turn at the plate, as Big 12 rushing leader Henry Josey will miss his third straight game. The Tigers’ run-first mentality suits the Tar Heels well, as Carolina boasts a stout front four that spearheads a top-20 rush defense. Missouri’s defense doesn’t match up as well against its pass-oriented foe. Better at defending the run, the Tigers have been torched by quality passing teams, and that’s what they’ll face in the pitch-and-catch combo of Bryn Renner and Dwight Jones. North Carolina is disadvantaged on special teams but should move the ball more effectively, as the Missouri attack plays into the strengths of the Tar Heels’ defense while the reverse is true when Carolina has the ball.
North Carolina State (-1) over Louisville: Belk Bowl, Dec. 27
Both of these teams have shown improvement throughout the year. Louisville’s young lineup gradually matured, and North Carolina State’s roster became healthier as players lost in camp returned from injury. Louisville is clearly ascendant under second-year coach Charlie Strong, but this is still a young team with an entirely different makeup than the senior-dominated group Strong led to the St. Petersburg Bowl in his debut season. North Carolina State is more experienced but has less overall talent among the underclassmen. The Louisville secondary has made strides since September but is still the weak link on defense. That’s the key matchup for the pass-oriented Wolfpack, who boast an experienced receiving corps that includes a first-rate deep threat in T.J. Graham and all-conference tight end in George Bryan. Louisville is a definite up-and-comer, but the Pack will have a significant home crowd and it doesn’t pay to go against Tom O’Brien, who is one of the two or three most accomplished active bowl coaches.
Western Michigan (+3) over Purdue: Little Caesars Bowl, Dec. 27
Purdue’s offense is pedestrian by any standard, but while the Boilermakers lack explosiveness and will be without injured workhorse Ralph Bolden, they should be able to move the ball on a Western Michigan defense that has been among the nation’s worst against the run all season despite getting consistent penetration from tackle Drew Novak, the MAC Defensive Player of the Year. Western’s offense is a one-dimensional outfit, with a pitiable running game but a highly productive passing attack directed by quarterback Alex Carder and a deep group of targets led by Jordan White, the nation’s leading receiver. Though it has been hurt by the better passing teams on the schedule, the Purdue secondary has acquitted itself fairly well this season and has an all-Big Ten cornerback in Ricardo Allen to assign to White. Third-year boss Danny Hope dropped a game versus MAC competition in each of his first two years, and though the Big Ten entrant has deeper talent across the board, this one is evenly matched enough to give the Broncos a chance. Special teams have been a strength for both squads, with advantages each side can normally rely on negated by the strengths of the other. If there’s an edge to be found in a game that should be well-attended by both teams’ fans, it’s that Western has better overall team health right now, while Purdue is practicing lots of players in noncontact jerseys.
Toledo (-3) over Air Force: Military Bowl, Dec. 28
New Illinois coach Tim Beckman expected to take most of his Toledo staff with him, but it appears he won’t have the chance. Toledo moved quickly to hire 32-year-old offensive coordinator Matt Campbell as the new head coach, and the Rockets should have more staff continuity heading into their bowl than most teams whose boss has bolted for another gig. Toledo’s offense has been among the most successful ever to employ a true two-quarterback system, as the Rockets move the ball easily with Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens under center. Both triggermen have had the benefit of throwing to the best player in school history, all-purpose star Eric Page. The offense has rushed for at least 236 yards in each of the past seven games and hasn’t allowed a sack in the past six. This offense is trouble for an Air Force squad sporting the weakest defensive front seven of the Troy Calhoun era. Toledo’s rush defense has been much better than its pass defense, and while Air Force can move the chains, it may not be able to keep pace with Toledo’s offense, especially if the Falcons fall behind. This is the bowl that Air Force wanted, and the Falcons will be ready to play as always. This year’s team isn’t that strong by program standards, though, having beaten zero opponents with winning records and dropping five games versus other bowl teams by more than a touchdown. Even with the coaching staff in transition, Toledo has too many horses for the Academy.
Texas (-3) over California: Holiday Bowl, Dec. 28
Texas wants to establish its post-Colt McCoy self as a downhill running team with a deep play-action threat. It was just coming into its own in that identity when injuries decimated the running back corps. The game-time status of freshman sensation Malcolm Brown‘s health will play a big role in the outcome, with Fozzy Whittaker out for the year and Joe Bergeron also on the mend. California has the pass rush and coverage abilities to contain a weak Texas aerial attack, but whether the Bears’ solid-but-not-spectacular rush defense can bottle up the Horns will depend on how close Brown and Bergeron are to full strength. Cal’s offense has progressed throughout November, with dangerous but inaccurate quarterback Zach Maynard‘s increased effectiveness coinciding with improvement from Isi Sofele and the ground game. The Bears will find it tough sledding against a Texas defense that probably rates as the best Maynard & Co. have seen this year, while the Longhorns are having to manufacture points right now. Expect a low-scoring game that could hinge on the superior Texas return and coverage units.
Notre Dame (+3) over Florida State: Champs Sports Bowl, Dec. 29
Florida State has been a dreadful rushing team this year, in part due to injuries at the running back position, but mostly due to ineffective offensive line play. Poor O-line performance has also caused quarterback E.J. Manuel to be among the most-sacked signal-callers in the country despite excellent mobility and contributed to Florida State’s being the most penalized team in the nation. The line has seen some injuries of its own, but the root problem has more to do with offensive coaching and communication than personnel, and it’s not going away unless Jimbo Fisher drastically simplifies the schemes. Manuel is a fine quarterback and the Seminoles receivers are the deepest, most talented group Notre Dame has seen, but Florida State’s offensive ineptitude gives the short-handed Irish a chance. Injuries at center, running back and receiver, plus the fact that opposing game plans have caught up with quarterback Tommy Rees, have contributed to the Notre Dame offense sagging down the stretch as well. Rees will start and running quarterback Andrew Hendrix will also play, but both will prepare without quarterback coach and offensive coordinator Charley Molnar, now the new head coach at Massachusetts. Neither struggling offense will move the chains consistently, but both have big-play threats. Florida State won’t allow Notre Dame to run the ball, and can’t run the ball itself, so the better pass defense has an edge. That advantage belongs to Florida State, as does the luxury of one the nation’s best special-teams units. The Seminoles managed just 95 yards in the finale at Florida, but all sides of the ball considered still shape up as the better team here. Their only issue, quite possibly a fatal one, is the game-day coaching mismatch between the inexperienced Fisher and 187-game winner Brian Kelly.
Baylor (-9.5) over Washington: Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29
Baylor is sporting its best team since the 1980 squad that won the Southwest Conference and lost the Cotton Bowl to Alabama. The Bears boast a top-five offense, with a Heisman-winning quarterback sharing the backfield with the Big 12′s leading rusher and throwing to three of the conference’s top seven receivers. Baylor may score on every possession against a beleaguered Washington defense that’s allowed 300 yards passing more often than not this season. Even that might not guarantee victory for the bowl season’s fifth-largest favorite, since a record-setting Washington passing attack and a 1,300-yard rusher might do equal damage to the Bears’ sadsack stop unit. Baylor is scoring enough to overwhelm average teams, but good offenses are still naming their score. The Huskies may well be able to trade blows with the Bears. Given this Baylor defense, Washington is equally capable in a shootout. Baylor will have a partisan crowd in San Antonio, but Art Briles is 0-4 as a bowl coach and the Bears are basking in Robert Griffin III‘s Heisman victory atop season-closing wins over Oklahoma and Texas. It’s harder to see the already-triumphant Bears bringing their best game of the season to the Alamodome than it is to see still-hungry Washington show up with a second straight monumental bowl effort.
Iowa (+14) over Oklahoma: Insight Bowl, Dec. 30
Oklahoma opened as the largest favorite of the bowl season, but there are plenty of reasons to doubt the Sooners’ pedigree in this game. Like Iowa, Bob Stoops’ crew is making its second straight bowl trip to the Phoenix area, but this game will be tougher to get excited about than last year’s Fiesta Bowl, especially for a program that had grown openly weary of Fiesta Bowls. The banged-up defense has regressed during the season, while the offense is now looking just as bad on the injury front. Landry Jones hasn’t managed a single touchdown pass since top target Ryan Broyles was hurt against Texas A&M, throwing five interceptions in that span, and now he’ll be without wideout Jazz Reynolds as well. The Sooners are also hurting at running back and fullback, though the running game has been nearly abandoned anyway. Iowa’s pass defense is poor and there’s been little pass rush from the Hawkeyes this year, so Oklahoma will surely find its way onto the scoreboard. But the Hawkeyes’ defenders will play hard for beloved retiring coordinator Norm Parker and head coach Kirk Ferentz is among the game’s best bowl coaches. Oklahoma’s defense has yielded big plays all year, and while Iowa does like to pound the ball with Marcus Coker this Hawkeyes edition can throw it as well. Quarterback James Vandenberg will reach 3,000 yards in this game, and he sports a 23-6 TD-to-interception ratio. Human highlight reel Marvin McNutt may be the best receiver in school history, and the Hawkeyes can trade punches here even if their atypically soft defense can’t handle the Sooners’ up-tempo attack.
BYU (-1) over Tulsa: Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 30
Tulsa has one of the most impressive résumés we’ll ever see from a four-loss team forced to play a weak conference schedule. The four losses were all to top-10 squads and all but one of the team’s wins was by at least 17 points. First-year coach Bill Blankenship has done well maintaining the balanced, potent attack of the Todd Graham era despite a lightly experienced receiving corps, and the team has racked up yardage so fast that it really hasn’t been hurt by its tendency to turn the ball over. In BYU, the Hurricane face the best defense they have seen since a September date in Boise. The Cougars, like Tulsa, lost to the best teams on the schedule and largely dominated inferior competition the rest of the way. Unlike Tulsa, BYU has done it with defense. The Cougars haven’t had a 100-yard rusher all year and can’t boast anything like Tulsa’s explosiveness, but they closed the season with a five-game stretch in which the defense did not allow 300 yards despite facing significant garbage time in four of the games. BYU has been an outstanding bowl team under Bronco Mendenhall, while his opponent’s coach is in his first postseason. Blankenship’s biggest challenge will be to get his team off the mat after closing the season with a loss to Houston in a de facto division title game.
Rutgers (-1.5) over Iowa State: Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30
Greg Schiano is one of the nation’s most accomplished bowl coaches, and while they’ll certainly have a home crowd, the Scarlet Knights may not be that fired up about playing this local game. Rutgers has already played in Yankee Stadium, topping Army there just a few weeks ago in a game marred by poor turf conditions. Rutgers moved back to a downhill rushing attack this year after a failed dalliance with spread schemes, and the transition has been painful. The Knights have generated little production on the ground and have rotated quarterbacks Chas Dodd and Gary Novaall year. The only constant has been wideout Mohamed Sanu, who set the Big East record for receptions in a season with 109. Iowa State has one shutdown cornerback to put on Sanu in Leonard Johnson, and the linebacking duo of Jake Knott and A.J. Klein is one of the nation’s best. Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads emphasizes bowl victories and is familiar with Rutgers, having faced Schiano seven times when the former was the defensive coordinator at Pittsburgh. The Cyclones own four fourth-quarter comebacks this year and will be tough defensively, but top rusher James Whiteis still ailing and their lack of explosive playmakers will hurt in what shapes up as a low-scoring game. The outcome could be decided by non-offensive scores, a familiar theme of Rutgers’ victories. The Knights consistently boast big-play special teams units, and the aggressive, ball-hawking defense that ranks fifth nationally in takeaways is a rough matchup for an Iowa State squad that has committed as many turnovers this year as any team save East Carolina.
Mississippi State (-6.5) over Wake Forest: Music City Bowl, Dec. 30
Mississippi State need not be ashamed of any of its losses, but the Bulldogs’ six wins consist of an overtime escape against eventual WAC champ Louisiana Tech, a win over an FCS squad and four victories against teams with a combined 12-26 record. State has rotated three quarterbacks this year with little success sparking the passing game, and the Vick Ballard-led rushing attack has been productive against the schedule’s weaker defenses only. A solid defense, anchored by All-American tackle Fletcher Cox and a talented secondary, has carried this team in 2011. Wake Forest is primarily a passing team, with sophomore triggerman Tanner Price and 1,200-yard wideout Chris Givens the stars of the show. The Demon Deacons started the season strong before seeing the run defense collapse down the stretch. The season finale was a home blowout at the hands of Vanderbilt, and Wake players see this game as an opportunity for some redemption against the SEC. They could get it, even though State’s physical superiority at the point of attack and outstanding secondary make this a poor matchup for the ACC underdogs. Jim Grobe is a top-flight bowl coach, and the Deacons and their fans are far more fired up about this game than the Bulldogs are.
Virginia (+3) over Auburn: Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31
It’s hard to find much to like about a rebuilding Auburn defense that allowed career days to Florida Atlantic, Samford and Mississippi while getting blown away by the five best teams it faced. The offense was the strength of the team all year, but quarterback is a revolving door, bell-cow rusher Michael Dyer is suspended for the game, and offensive mastermind Gus Malzahn has bolted for Arkansas State. Defensive coordinator Ted Roof was ousted after the Iron Bowl, and coach Gene Chizik will coordinate the defense himself in the bowl. That is a not recipe for an inexperienced team succeeding in postseason play. Beating Virginia will be a tall order for the Tigers. The Cavaliers are not the most talented team in the ACC, but a solid, physical identity and excellent team chemistry led to the program’s best season in many years, and Virginia Tech’s Sugar Bowl berth bumped the team up a notch into the more desirable Atlanta game. The Cavaliers are stoked about the opportunity to play the defending national champs in the school’s most prestigious bowl berth since the 1998 Peach Bowl. Virginia has the rush defense to keep Auburn in check and the offensive wherewithal to power the ball down the field.
Cincinnati (+1.5) over Vanderbilt: Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31
Vanderbilt and its partisan home-state crowd will be fired up for its second bowl since 1982. This is the most physical Commodores team in years, and they found an identity running the ball after midseason changes that saw Jordan Rodgers installed at quarterback along with some shuffling on the offensive line. Cincinnati’s quarterback situation is less clear, with Zach Collaros likely out for the bowl and Munchie Legaux battling Jordan Luallen for the starting role. Either way, it’s running back Isaiah Pead who drives the Bearcats’ offense. The leading returning rusher in the Big East needs 41 yards to lead the league this year. Vandy is no longer punchless on offense, but the Dores don’t have a weapon of Pead’s caliber. Passing teams would match up better against the Bearcats than the run-oriented Commodores. Cincinnati has struggled with an injury-riddled secondary that wasn’t that productive when healthy, but the defensive front is solid. The Cats lead the nation in sacks and tackles for loss. Cincinnati is sending off a productive senior class that has provided great leadership, and it figures to get the best of a young Vandy squad even without Collaros.
Illinois (-2.5) over UCLA: Fight Hunger Bowl, Dec. 31
The Interim Bowl pits two teams that have hired new head coaches but are led into this game by coordinators acting as interim coaches. UCLA can claim a bit more momentum despite a losing record, since the Bruins’ Pistol running attack improved down the stretch even as the schedule toughened, while Illinois lost six straight after opening 6-0. The Illini’s offense disappeared, averaging a mere 268 yards per game during the losing streak. UCLA, however, might have the antidote. The Bruins’ defense managed just 13 sacks all year and was pushed around by every opponent with any kind of running game. Illinois’ strength is a dominant defensive front that controlled the line of scrimmage until the last few games of the year. This is a tough game to call early, as the winner will likely be the team that most decides it cares about winning, but on paper the Illini have the edge, even in a West Coast venue.
Utah (+3) over Georgia Tech: Sun Bowl, Dec. 31
Georgia Tech hasn’t had much fortune in bowls under Paul Johnson. The Jackets have also underperformed in season openers, FBS openers, and games after opposing teams’ open dates. In fact, most teams with extra preparation time have fared pretty well against the Georgia Tech offense. Utah is likely to continue that trend. Not only do the Utes have extra prep time, but they also have the advantage of seeing Air Force every year. The Falcons’ option attack is very different from Tech’s, but it’s close enough to convey some advantages to a defense that’s been among the nation’s best against the run this year no matter the scheme. Throw in the fact that Utes boss Kyle Whittingham is one of the country’s premier postseason coaches, and all signs point to Tech struggling to score points here. However, the same can be said of Utah. Georgia Tech’s defense has improved in coordinator Al Groh’s second year, and while the Jackets aren’t exactly a shutdown stop unit yet, they don’t have to be to slow a very pedestrian Utah attack. The Utes have little big-play ability and have managed just 295 yards per game this year, topping 350 in regulation just once all season. Utah has simply ridden 1,400-yard rusher John White, 12th nationally in rushing yards per game but fifth in carries. Utah is well-positioned to handle the Tech attack, and all but the worst defenses are equipped to handle the Utes. This should be one of the bowl season’s lowest-scoring games, and the Utes’ superior special teams could be the difference.
Texas A&M (-10) over Northwestern: Texas Bowl, Dec. 31
Northwestern has won at least six games in eight of the past nine years and hung tough with heavy favorites in bowl games the past three years, but the Wildcats still haven’t logged a postseason win since 1948. This year, Pat Fitzgerald’s team is again one of the heaviest underdogs of the bowl season, but the Cats could get some help from a self-destructing Texas A&M team that blew two-possession leads in five of its six losses and routinely hampers itself with penalties, turnovers and head-scratching coaching decisions. The man responsible for those decisions, Mike Sherman, has been ousted, and though defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter was named interim coach, he’s now on his way to Fresno State. The Aggies will have a home crowd edge and are far more athletically talented than Northwestern, but this is a team in flux that’s likely just trying to forget a miserable season. On paper, the Aggies should be even bigger favorites than they are, as A&M has the passing game to light up a porous Northwestern secondary that’s now missing top corner Jordan Mabin. Cyrus Gray, half of Texas A&M’s fine running back duo along with Christine Michael, may or may not return from injury in time for the game, but the Aggies should have no trouble moving the ball on a soft Northwestern defense. Northwestern will have to shoot it out to win, and while the pass-oriented offense isn’t a big-play unit, it does consistently move the chains behind the accurate passing of Dan Persa, the playmaking of backup quarterback-turned-receiver and leading rusher Kain Colter, and wideout Jeremy Ebert, who finished fourth in the Big Ten in receiving yards per game after leading the league a year ago. Northwestern has a stellar record in close games under Fitzgerald and rarely gets blown out, even against physically superior teams. The Wildcats may not have the horses to win if A&M shows any desire at all, but Northwestern can certainly make it a four-quarter game.
Ohio State (+2) over Florida: Gator Bowl, Jan. 2
Both teams lost highly successful coaches after the 2010 season and limp nto this bowl having struggled to a 6-6 mark this year. Ohio State, though, is feeling a lot better about itself than Florida. Urban Meyer is in place as the Buckeyes’ new boss, and the popular Luke Fickell will be retained as defensive coordinator. Optimism about the future reigns in Columbus, while in Gainesville, the Will Muschamp staff has been painfully and obviously in over its head all year and offensive coordinator Charlie Weis has bolted the program. Neither defense-oriented squad should be able to dent the end zone much, but Ohio State is more likely to bring some confidence to this affair. Both teams feature a young secondary that has been burned at times and stout rush defenses that regressed in November. While the offenses have struggled this year, Ohio State has a better sense of its identity on that side of the ball. The Gators should play in front of a partisan crowd, but that’s the only edge the Gators have in a game that will be overshadowed by Meyer.
Oklahoma State (-3.5) over Stanford: Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 2
Teams left feeling jilted by the BCS process often haven’t fared well in their bowl games. Kansas State in 1998, Colorado in 2001, Texas in 2003 and California in 2004 all faltered in their bowls after feeling like the BCS left them at the altar. Sometimes, though, as with Missouri in 2007, a disrespected team comes out angry and makes a statement. Stanford must hope Oklahoma State falls into the former group, or this game might not be close. The Cardinal are a fine team, but they aren’t in Oklahoma State’s class. Stanford dominated weak competition during the first half of the season, and production faltered as the schedule stiffened down the stretch. This team is fatally weak at wide receiver and cornerback, relying on tight ends in the passing game and on a strong pass rush for pass defense. Oklahoma State matches up well there, as the Cowboys are an elite pass protection team with a more physical defense than most teams Stanford has faced. The Cowboys’ defense has been maligned all year thanks to poor national rankings in simplistic metrics like total yardage. The reality is that the bulk of that yardage was surrendered in garbage time. By the metrics that measure performance when games are still in doubt, Oklahoma State’s defense is easily a top-20 unit. It’s also true that coordinator Bill Young’s strategy is to force opposing teams to execute their way down the field, stiffening in the red zone and relying on turnovers to stop possessions. That has worked to perfection, as the Cowboys lead the nation in takeways and are one of the nation’s best red zone teams. That makes it strength on strength when Stanford has the ball, as the Cardinal’s excellent offense does not turn the ball over and converts its opportunities. The same can’t be said when Oklahoma State has possession, though. Stanford just doesn’t have anything resembling the personnel to stop the Pokes — if the Big 12 champion can break the pattern of BCS victims and show up with its A-game.
South Carolina (-2) over Nebraska: Capital One Bowl, Jan. 2
South Carolina didn’t win the SEC East this year, but the Gamecocks beat every team in the division and won 10 games for just the second time in school history. That wasn’t surprising, since this is the best era in the 120-year history of the program and the team entered the season as the division favorite. What’s surprising is that Carolina accomplished this despite the midseason loss of a preseason Heisman candidate at running back and the SEC’s most accomplished returning quarterback. Losing Marcus Lattimore and Stephen Garcia caused Steve Spurrier to rely on the team’s outstanding defense, and it wasn’t until the final game of the season that the offense showed true progress with Connor Shaw under center. The blowout of rival Clemson validated Spurrier as an adaptable offensive mastermind and Shaw as a player who can lead the team to greater heights next season. Carolina has limped into — and subsequently tanked in — its past three bowl games. This year, on the heels of a landmark performance by Shaw, the team is buying into its future like never before. The team’s attitude entering the postseason is different this year, partly because it’s the most prestigious postseason assignment in school history but largely because what Shaw did against Clemson has made him the real leader of the team for the first time. With the offense on the upswing and a defensive front that’s the beneficiary of a mismatch against a weak Nebraska offensive line, Carolina is confident heading into this matchup. That’s a lot more than can be said of Nebraska, which after four years is only starting to realize that the program is failing under Bo Pelini. The 66th-ranked rush defense is not as advertised; the coach’s right-hand man is out the door for a Sun Belt gig; and the offense — under mercurial triggerman Taylor Martinez and the weakest offensive staff in the Big Ten — has yet to craft an identity and is primarily defined by its lack of ball security. These programs are moving in opposite directions.
Penn State (+5.5) over Houston: TicketCity Bowl, Jan. 2
Attitude is a major concern for both interim coaching staffs. In one week, Houston dropped from the school’s first Sugar Bowl to a third straight date in the Metroplex. Penn State doesn’t want to be there either; the Lions were passed over in the bowl pecking order by three teams they beat convincingly. Houston has had a great season, but the Cougars would be in trouble against a top-tier Big Ten team even if they were amped up for this game. The best defense Houston faced before being held to a season-low output by Southern Miss was WAC champion Louisiana Tech, and the Cougars were stuck 34-7 at one point in that game. Penn State is a huge step up in class for the Conference USA West champ. The all-senior secondary can handle the Houston receivers, and the Lions should dominate the trenches with the tackle combo of Devon Still and Jordan Hill. The Lions’ lack of passing prowess has plagued them against the better defenses on the schedule, but in this game, Penn State has the matchup it needs — a defense it can run on steadily. Penn State can easily control the line of scrimmage on both sides and is more talented in the back end than any team Case Keenum and his receivers have faced. Neither team has any enthusiasm for this bowl, but if the Lions are the better team and if they show up angry instead of disappointed, the game will be over before halftime.
Georgia (-3.5) over Michigan State: Outback Bowl, Jan. 2
Conference championship game losers meet in a rematch of the 2008 Capital One Bowl, but these two teams are in very different situations. Michigan State is crushed after blowing a title game it largely controlled. There isn’t a single player, coach or staffer in East Lansing who doesn’t regard that game as the worst loss he’s ever been through, and that’s a very difficult thing to overcome in time for a bowl assignment that doesn’t meet preseason expectations. Georgia was certainly disappointed to lose to LSU, but for a young Bulldogs team that will be highly ranked entering next year, there’s not the same sense of finality, of blowing its last chance, that there is for Michigan State, led by senior quarterback Kirk Cousins. The Spartans have the horses to win this one if they can get off the mat. The running game struggled early but came on strong late in the year, as Le’Veon Bell emerged as the bell cow. The passing attack is the best in Mark Dantonio’s tenure. And the defense is a top-15 unit with no glaring weaknesses and some dominant players up front. Michigan State could certainly make things difficult for a Georgia team with issues at running back and offensive line, but two weeks before the game Sparty is still in the tank, while up-and-coming Georgia and its Tampa-native quarterback Aaron Murray are feeling pretty good about themselves for a team that just lost a halftime lead in a conference title game.
Virginia Tech (+2.5) over Michigan: Sugar Bowl, Jan. 3
The Sugar pits two capable, well-rounded teams that should continue to contend for national honors over the next year or two. Both sides have uber-talented quarterbacks and can call on multiple offensive weapons to move the ball and make explosive plays. Both have outstanding defensive coaches who will make it difficult for either side to hang a big number on the other. And both have mediocre special teams but solid place-kickers. Michigan is riding high after closing the season with three straight wins over bowl teams, including a streak-snapping thriller against Ohio State. Virginia Tech impressively dismantled an out-of-gas upstart Virginia, then fell flat in the ACC title-game rematch with Clemson The Hokies’ big-game experience and need for redemption give them a slight edge in what should be a hotly contested affair that turns into one of the bowl season’s best games.
Clemson (-3.5) over West Virginia: Orange Bowl, Jan. 4
These two teams demonstrate the maxim that explosive plays win football games, as both light up the scoreboard despite getting in their own way pretty often. Triggermen Tajh Boyd and Geno Smith guide high-octane passing attacks with multiple targets. The defenses have made clutch plays at times, but neither stop unit is a shutdown group. A cleanly played game is less likely than one featuring a handful of sacks, turnovers, special-teams gaffes and coaching blunders, but this should be competitive in a big-play, back-and-forth kind of way. Clemson’s path to this game was more impressive, as the Tigers twice deposed ACC overlord Virginia Tech, while the Mountaineers had to send a three-way Big East tie to committee before coming up with the Orange berth. Clemson has done a bit better than West Virginia this year at winning the field position and turnover battles, and it’s those swings that will make the difference in a close game with plenty of action.
Kansas State (+7.5) over Arkansas: Cotton Bowl, Jan. 6
Kansas State has been outgained by every conference foe except Kansas, but the Wildcats’ particular brand of smoke and mirrors is the rare sustainable kind. Elite intangibles and excellence in the areas of special teams, turnover margin, red zone prowess and field position are hallmarks of Bill Snyder squads. Next year, this junior-dominated team will be the Big 12 favorites, and the current Cats have a shot at favored Arkansas despite a bad matchup for the Kansas State defense. Arkansas is a rising power whose high-octane passing attack should light up the Kansas State secondary, but the Razorbacks rush defense will allow Collin Klein and the ball-control Cats to keep the game in reach. Like Kansas State, Arkansas may be the unlikely favorites in its own conference next season as the powers that be suffer key graduation losses, but right now the Hogs are replacing all three coordinators and have had their late-season momentum broken by a second-half blowout in the high-stakes affair in Baton Rouge. Bobby Petrino is one of the sport’s best, but he is not a particularly accomplished bowl coach. Snyder won 11 games six times in seven years during his first stint, and he is embarking on a similar run his second time around.
SMU (+3) over Pittsburgh: Compass Bowl, Jan. 7
The Panthers are experiencing deja vu over a second straight bowl trip to Birmingham, Ala., led by an interim coach. This year’s scenario is very different, though, as last season the team displayed solidarity in playing hard for deposed coach Dave Wannstedt. This year’s team is a jilted bunch that’s still in disbelief over Todd Graham’s abrupt departure, and it may be true that not one of the other 69 teams is less excited about its bowl game. The normally prolific SMU offense has had a poor season, as quarterback J.J. McDermott has struggled weekly and workhorse back Zach Linewas lost for the year a few weeks back. The Mustangs have experienced coaching drama of their own, as June Jones was set to bolt to Arizona State before the offer was pulled at the last minute. Jones must convince his jaded players that he hasn’t mentally checked out of the job. If he succeeds, his Ponies should be able to get past an uninterested Pitt bunch.
Arkansas State (-2) over Northern Illinois: GoDaddy Bowl, Jan. 8
One of just four games pitting two conference champions, the last bowl before the BCS title game could be the highest-scoring tilt of the postseason. Both offenses are balanced attacks that can move the chains and hit the big gainers. The Northern Illinois defense gives up plenty of big plays in the back end, and Arkansas State is an explosive passing team that gains yards in big chunks. The Huskies are prolific scorers as well, but the Red Wolves’ rush defense gives the Sun Belt champ an edge, as A-State has held more opponents than not under 100 yards on the ground. Arkansas State faces the disadvantage of having lost its head coach, but Northern has already achieved the season’s crowning moment with a 20-point comeback in the MAC title game. In the offing is a closely contested shootout much like the 2009 game between Central Michigan and Troy.
Wisconsin (+6) over Oregon: Rose Bowl, Jan. 2
For all of Chip Kelly’s achievements at Oregon, there were two mountains his program had not climbed entering this season. One was beating a top-20 team away from Autzen Stadium and the other was beating a team with a physical identity. Both were accomplished at Stanford this year, and now the Ducks just have to prove they can knock off a top team outside their own league. Wisconsin is in many ways a carbon copy of Stanford, with its downhill rushing attack, outstanding play-action game and solid-but-not-great defense that’s a little short on speed. The Badgers, though, are Stanford’s superior, most notably in terms of top-to-bottom coaching staff, but also in terms of perimeter players on both sides of the ball. Wisconsin has the best offense in the country, and Oregon isn’t far behind. The Ducks are lacking at wide receiver, but they’re efficient enough when they do throw and balance is not necessarily in their nature. The Oregon defense is a fine group, better than Wisconsin’s overall and often overshadowed by the explosive offense. But it’s a defense built for speed, and can’t match the Badgers’ power inside. Likewise, the Big Ten champ’s defense isn’t fast enough or tough enough against the run to stop the Oregon attack. These teams are going to move up and down the field on each other. This could be the bowl season’s greatest game, and it’s tough to find a big edge apart from the one shared by the two offenses. Oregon’s special teams are a little better, while Wisconsin has a little more experience overall.
Alabama (-1) over LSU: BCS Championship, Jan. 9
Offensively, Alabama relies on wearing opponents down via the cumulative effect of a four-quarter pounding by Trent Richardson, Eddie Lacy and a stellar offensive line. That plan would seem to have its advantages against a smallish LSU front seven. But you can’t reap the fourth-quarter benefits of pounding the ball all game if you forget to pound the ball all game, and in the first meeting Alabama called 31 pass plays to 29 rushing plays even though the Crimson Tide didn’t trail before Drew Alleman’s game-winning kick in overtime. Just as Richardson was starting to gash the LSU defense, Nick Saban broke out his familiar big-game tactic — the ill-timed trick play. The resulting turnover was expensive, as that and other coaching gaffes cost Alabama a game its once-in-a-generation defense was ready to win. The Alabama game plan looked as if the coaches had spent the open date deliberately trying to put the game in the hands of the superior LSU secondary and special teams, which were really the only two advantageous matchups the Tigers had. Fast forward to the rematch, and those are still the only factors clearly in LSU’s favor, aside from the one that the first game hinged on, Les Miles’ superior big-game chops. Saban is an elite coach whose teams perform at a consistently high level, but his record in games involving extra preparation time doesn’t begin to compare with Miles’. Saban was guilty of the proverbial “play not to lose” approach in the first game, but if he can do even a little better in the rematch, Richardson and the Alabama defense will do the rest. LSU is a fantastic team and defensive coordinator John Chavis earned a well-deserved Broyles Award, but the result of the first game just obscured the greatness of this Alabama defense. LSU won’t match the 239 yards it gained the first time, and the Tide won’t squander their second chance.
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Boise State (-14) over Arizona State: Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22
Along with Oklahoma, the Broncos are the 2011 postseason’s biggest favorites. They’re not in an ideal spot, though, as a second straight trip to Sin City is a big disappointment for a team that had legitimate BCS aspirations right up to the moment the bowl pairings were announced. Coach Chris Petersen even uncharacteristically complained about his team’s bowl fate, and the early date doesn’t leave much time for the Broncos to put aside their disappointment and prepare with their usual fervor. That motivational caveat aside, this isn’t a bad matchup for Boise, even though Arizona State has the kind of explosive downfield aerial attack that produced poor outings for the Broncos secondary against TCU and San Diego State. Working in Boise’s favor is the Sun Devils defense, which hasn’t done anything to demonstrate it can stop all-everything quarterback Kellen Moore or bowling ball running back Doug Martin. The Broncos still can’t kick field goals, but like all well-coached outfits, this team has improved on its weaknesses as the season has progressed. Boise State has patched its leaky secondary with a few personnel moves since the TCU debacle, and the inexperienced receiving corps isn’t the liability it was in September. Arizona State’s Brock Osweilerhas ample offensive weapons, and the Sun Devils will score some points against a Boise State team that doesn’t really want to be in this game. It’s legendary coach Dennis Erickson’s final game, but it’s also the final sendoff for Moore and a productive senior class that has a rare shot at 50 wins. The favorite is going to take some punches, but in the end Moore & Co. are well-equipped to handle a shootout.
Utah State (+1) over Ohio: Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 17 Boise State, while the Gem State is a new experience for Frank Solich’s Ohio team. The timing also sets up nicely for the Aggies, as Ohio faces a relatively short mental turnaround to move past a crushing loss in the MAC title game in which the Bobcats blew a 20-point halftime lead to Northern Illinois. The first half of that game displayed the balance of Ohio’s attack, which features a rising star in sophomore quarterback Tyler Tettleton, a playmaking wideout in LaVon Brazill and a handful of rushing threats led by Donte Harden. Utah State can’t keep Ohio from moving the chains, but the Aggies’ offense boasts the most explosive player on the field in NFL-caliber ball-toter Robert Turbin. The Bobcats will counter with a respectable defense led by linebacker Noah Keller, one the MAC’s best players over the past few years. Keller is one of 17 seniors on an experienced Ohio squad, but the Bobcats are 0-8 in postseason games. After closing the season with such a devastating defeat, it will be difficult for this team to get off the mat in time to stop Turbin and the nation’s sixth-ranked rushing attack.
Florida International (-4) over Marshall: St. Petersburg Bowl, Dec. 20
Florida International closed the season on a three-game winning streak but hasn’t beaten a winning team since a Week 2 upset of then-struggling Louisville. Marshall also topped the Cardinals in September, but that game and an early-season home upset of Southern Miss stand as clear outliers on an otherwise unimpressive résumé. In defensive end Vinny Curry, the Thundering Herd have a player who would start for any team in the nation, but beyond the Curry-influenced high national rankings in sacks and tackles for loss, this young Marshall squad has not excelled at anything this season. Outscored and outgained on the year by a wider margin than any other bowl team, the Herd stand as the weakest team in the 2011 postseason. The experienced Golden Panthers may fairly be called a disappointment this year, but even the fourth-place team in the Sun Belt rates as a favorite over Conference USA’s weakest bowl entrant. FIU all-purpose star T.Y. Hilton is by far this matchup’s most explosive player, while Marshall glaringly lacks playmakers on offense and special teams. The Florida venue gives the Panthers an additional edge, as does the inexperience of a recruiting-oriented Marshall coaching staff.
Louisiana Tech (-10) over TCU: Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 21
TCU achieved double-digit wins for the sixth time in seven years, but this is a young team by recent standards. The rebuilt defense allowed the most points since 2004, the program’s last losing season, while the offense struggled to run the ball against the better rush defenses on the schedule. The Frogs still field a formidable downhill attack, led by the backfield trio of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley, and the passing attack, under rookie triggermanCasey Pachall, proved at Boise State that it can thrive when needed. Still, this is a weaker TCU team than recent editions, one that could have trouble living up to its billing as the bowl season’s third-biggest favorite. WAC champ Louisiana Tech couldn’t get past its toughest nonconference tests — September dates with Southern Miss, Houston and Mississippi State — but all three were nailbiters. This squad is the school’s best since moving up to the Football Bowl Subdivision in 1989. The Bulldogs field by far the WAC’s best defense and have come on strong in the passing game since installing Colby Cameron at quarterback midseason. For Tech, the Poinsettia is a coveted destination reserved for the WAC champion, but for a TCU team that earned Rose and Fiesta berths the past two seasons, it’s a ho-hum assignment that the Frogs have already conquered twice in the past five years. The underdog’s rush defense has the chops to make this a game, and this Tech team has hung around with too many heavy hitters the past couple of years to be intimidated by TCU’s physical approach.
Louisiana-Lafayette (+6) over San Diego State: New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 17
San Diego State boasts the single best weapon in the game in running back Ronnie Hillman, the nation’s third-leading rusher. There’s little depth behind him, though, and if Hillman isn’t moving the chains, the Aztecs will struggle to throw, as their inexperienced receiving corps doesn’t match up well with a ball-hawking Louisiana secondary that produced both first team all-Sun Belt cornerbacks. The Ragin’ Cajuns were the surprise of the Sun Belt this season, finishing 8-4 in coach Mark Hudspeth’s first year behind a potent spread offense led by dual-threat quarterback Blaine Gautier. The result was the school’s first bowl appearance, and Cajun fans have snapped up the tickets for what will be a near-home game in the Superdome. The schedule favors Louisiana as much as the venue, as the Cajuns have finished the semester already while the Aztecs won’t install the game plan until they reach New Orleans and must give exams via proctors at the bowl site in between practices. Aztecs boss Rocky Long left New Mexico as the winningest coach in school history, but his bowl résumé is lacking and this matchup offers tough circumstances for him to improve on a 1-4 postseason record, especially with a team that’s far less healthy than its local foe.
Temple (-7) over Wyoming: New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 17
The venue favors Wyoming, as the Cowboys play New Mexico there every other year and went bowling in this stadium in 2009. The Pokes don’t match up well with Temple, though. The Owls are a downhill power team, with NFL prospect Bernard Pierce and elusive Matt Brown operating behind a large, experienced offensive line. The oft-injured Pierce is as healthy as he’s been since early in the year, and the nation’s sixth-leading rusher should have plenty of room against a poor-tackling Wyoming defense that’s allowed eight teams to run for more than 200 yards and ranks in the bottom 20 nationally in every major rush defense metric. Temple’s defense has faced mostly offensive lightweights, but a senior-laden front seven has the Owls ranked third nationally in scoring defense. Wyoming freshman triggerman Brett Smith is a keeper, but without injured leading receiver Chris McNeill, the Pokes will have a hard time going down the field. The Owls will chew up yards and clock with Pierce, using their large advantage in special teams to win field position throughout the game.
