2010 Del Mar – Track Biases and Trainer Notes

SAN DIEGO,CA – Where the Turf meets the Surf down in old Del Mar has completed its 3rd week of racing.The Southern California Thoroughbred Club has everything for everyone who visits the track for fun and for those who are serious. The beauty of the track itself and the surrounding area lends itself to those who understand how fun a trip to Del Mar can be. The Crowds in attendance showed in droves on opening day in  which 45,000 plus came through the gate  on a Wednesday to catch the fever. The attendance since has been between 9-25,000 to see if they can catch a long shot. For those who like to gain a bit of an edge when playing and wagering on Thoroughbreds here just a few notes and some observations I’ve come up with hopefully to help  eliminate some horses in races. You need to feel you have some sort of  an edge when playing the races. Please note that track conditions easily can change over the break (Mon & Tues). Still up to this point, here’s how it pans out:

W2WW= Wire to Wire Winners

Main Track Sprints - I’ve got it at 72 main track Sprint races (7 furlongs or less). Of those 72 races 26 of those have been wire to wire winners, with 9 of those winners being the favorite. Also note that 16 of those W2WW , have been maiden races, both Claiming and Specials. Of the 72, there have been 19 sprint  races of $25k Claiming or less (not Maiden) that have had only 1 W2WW. Be careful of low end Claimers ($8-25k)  that show front end speed not going wire to wire.

Turf Routes – 29 Turf Routes (1 mile or more 2 turns) and only 2 W2WW, at all levels! If you were running 1-2 up to the 1/4 pole, it was over for you. It seems to be catching on now that horses known for their speed are starting to stay back, as well as mid pack horses are going to the front inheriting a lead. However it remains, if you were off the lead going down the back stretch on turf routes its looking good. 15 times out of 24 races the 3-4-5 positions  were won from these 1/4 and 1/2 calls. We did see Siete Machos grab an easy lead on Sunday (Aug 8 7th Race 1 mile on the turf)  and set some decent fractions of 23;  48-1 ; 1:12 , and went Wire to Wire easily. Makes me wonder about the rest of those contenders in that race unable to pose a threat in which the bias was in their favor. On turf  Routes, get away from the front runners. At least up to this point.

Main Track Routes – Over the 3 weeks there have been 20 route races in which 2 have been W2WW (Wire to Wire Winners). One of those W2W was the Grade 2 Cougar II handicap in which Temple City just loped around the track easily. Other than that it been pretty much midpack horses for the most part. Midpack where the winner is around 4th or 5th at the first and 2nd call in a 2 turn Route race.

Longshots Trainers: These are the guys that have horses ready but either they don’t show the form in the Racing form or they have first time starters that the general public has limited information about. We can only find out after the event. Keep track of these types hopefully to gain and advantage next time:

Doug O’Neill, the Notorious trainer is just awesome when you least expect it. He has 4 winners over 6-1. You have to figure he’s got them all ready to run every time, but knowing when to pull the trigger for his longer odds entries is key. All 4 of these come from sprint races, and has had 2 first time starter wins included. Other Trainers with multiple 6-1 or more winners: Julio Canani (9-1, 11-1) Eoin Harty (7-1,9-1), Eric Kruljac 6-1,10-1). Also note that lesser known trainers that recieve no wagering support does not mean these horses aren’t ready to run. Look into them for the little time it may take or else stay away from wagering on those races. Cho Myung Kwan, Eduardo Inda, Santos Perez to name a few. We can’t forget Silverio Martinez who caught us all,  as his 70-1 Flamingtouchofgold entry on Aug 8th (2nd race) touched gold for the person or persons who nailed any exotic wager having to do with that horse.The other clean up closer was Warrens Wild Thing at 32-1 which ran 2nd, trained by Jack Van Berg set off a huge payout as in just over a quarter of a million for the superfecta!

It can  be  difficult to get a feel for every race! You can be a very good astute handicapper and figure how a race will play out when trainer instructions are different that day than what the horse has shown previously. Or their bad starts from the gate and many other factors that you didn’t think would unfold during a race. Or it could have figured exactly like you would have thought the race would unfold and  you still lose or there’s 3-4-5 horses at the wire, its called racing luck. Maintain your steadfast wagering because your rewards will come. Stay confident in your prowess and keep watching and waiting for the edge to appear. They do appear!

I use both TVG.com and Bodog.com for my wagering…. Bodog has landed me the most luck!!!

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Saturday’s Feature race at Del Mar brings you the  $150,000  LA JOLLA HANDICAP (Gr. II) for 3 year olds going a 1 and 1/16 on Turf.  Check out Jay Privman’s article in drf.com  about Summer Movie ready to go in that one.

Sunday’s Feature is the Grade II John C Mabee Stakes for fillies and Mares 3 years old and up going a 1 1/8 on Turf. Check out Steve Anderson’s  drf.com article on Wasted Tears primed for that race.

Find some Value!!!!

J Connelly