*They show up usually within the first 3 weeks of the season and then sporadically thereafter.
They can make bettors drool at a chance to seize major assets, or at the same time make others wince with a notion of disdain and avoid like the plague.
It’s close to the opening of College football, and with these opening weeks comes these Monster Point Spreads.
They’re synonomous with the so-called “Cupcake” games.
It usually involves Division I powerhouses facing Colleges that may perhaps need some recognition for their sports cirirculum other than Basketball.
Schools like Savannah State, Western Illinois,Tennessee Tech, Lamar, to name a few, exploit the unbalanced nature of the game and even their football program in return for above normal payday that helps fund the school. Whatever.
They’re here, so how do we deal with them?
We could take a peek ahead to see what games in the first week of 2014 that could be a potential plus 42 point spread for the ROAD DOG CUPCAKE:
Idaho State @ Utah
Weber St @ Arizona St.
Jacksonville St @ Michigan St.
Appalachian St @ Michigan
Nicholls St. @ Air Force?
South Dakota @ Oregon
Looks like the South Dakota vs Oregon game might be the highest of them all, maybe 50 or more. I’m not so sure Appalachian St will perform any miracles against Michigan again any time soon. What’s Weber St’s chances vs Arizona St? I’m not so sure about Nicholls St. More importantly even if you don’t agree that 1 or 2 of these games will be a high spread it doesn’t really matter until we see the actual lines. It’s just for the example.
Against the spread they all have chance. But which ones will actually do it. But better question is who won’t!
Below in spreadsheet #1 will show the last 2 years (2012-2013) Ncaa Football Game spreads (not exactly at kickoff) that contains 31 games in which the Road team Underdog has a spread of 42 points or more. The logic factor is removed in these equations,however you’ll see that this could be infused with the public bet %:
You’ll notice in the last 2 years that MOST of these Heavy spread laden Road Dogs got lit up and couldn’t cover. However some did. In fact 9 of the 31 games, the Road Dog covered.
Next is a SORT in Spreadsheet #2 is to show the spread lines in sequential order from 42 points on up to see if any patterns result:
As you can see from the spreadsheet that spread lines starting at 42.5 up and only to 47 shows a a nice 15-2 run of success. So right there you know that in the last 2 years 88% in this margin of spread lines has been successful. Above 47 it starts to break apart.
Lets take it another step and SORT Spreadsheet #3 of the PCT. of the public wagers. Its always been a common notion to bet against the public or at least have a good idea which way the general public is leaning in games to help form a decision.
Again, another trend has hit here. I think you can clearly see it. Right? Yea 16 winners out of 18 show bet percentages over 53.70%. Pretty good.
So if we gather this information , we can put together a fairly good idea based on history as to where the edge may lie when faced with Road Monster dog Spread.
1 They should be between 42.5 and 47 inclusive
2 They should be above 53.70 % of the public betting percentage. (seems the Public has it right most of the time with these)
So here would your bets be made based on the above criteria which have been the last 2 years if we supposedly used this idea from these games just as an example.
Louisville-W Wisconsin-W LSU-L Auburn-W Marshall-W Georgia Tech-W Texas A&M-W Texas-W Virginia -W UCLA-W TCU-L Wisc-W Fla St-W OSU-W
12-2 record …These are the games that fell into the 1-2 criteria to make a wager.
This is just one avenue to try if you want to take a chance at these MONSTER SPREADS and gain an edge in your favor. It may work it may not, or something else to think about,and it only contains a 2 year example, but it might be worth a bet! Happy prosperous wagering!
J Connelly @OddsOnYourSide.com
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